It is currently difficult to have a business conversation without discussing the Big Picture. The voracious 24-hour news cycle needs plenty of fodder to attract eyeballs. It almost seems like the media must pick and choose what will create the most concern. “Seventeen dead in drone attacks? Let’s put that sixth on the schedule.”
Big Picture Issues
Wars in Ukraine, Israel, and Sudan. Attacks on shipping. Russian hacker ransomware. The battle between the U.S. executive and judicial branches. Tariffs, sanctions, inflation, interest rates, boycotts.
Will the price of raw materials go up? How much will transportation cost next week? Should I load up on inventory—or scale back? Can we raise prices proactively? Will my suppliers raise their prices proactively? Will my customers find alternatives to my products or services?
It almost makes a business owner pine for the days when “mundane” issues like employee retention and customer satisfaction were the primary concerns.
How much weight should a business place on Big Picture issues? If you are a tomato grower in Mexico who ships 100% of your crop to the U.S. and just got hit with a 17% tariff, maybe a lot. But if you are a consumer in the grocery store who just saw Roma tomatoes go from $0.23 each to $0.27 each, perhaps not so much.
If you are an Italian restaurant that consumes 400 pounds of those tomatoes a week, the increase in cost from $0.79 to $0.92 a pound is about $52. Perhaps not enough to change menu prices, but enough to be discussed at the restaurant association meeting.
But Does it Count?
Even when the Big Picture seems to matter, the actual impact may be far smaller than it first appears. If you are a greenhouse tomato grower in Arizona, you probably applaud the tariff. If your gross margin on each pound of tomatoes sold is $0.05, you just narrowed the gap by about one-tenth of a cent. Does that really tip the scales?
Has the Mexican grower truly lost the inherent advantages of lower water and labor costs? Or were those already eroded by the Arizona grower’s automation, climate controls, and proximity to market?
In the final analysis, the biggest impact of the tomato tariff may be the concern it creates—the distraction from focusing on other issues—and the fodder for another news cycle. Then the Mexican grower, the Arizona grower, the restaurateur, the supermarket buyer, and the consumer all go back to what they were doing. They simply have a slightly different set of numbers to work with.
The Advisor’s Role
As advisors to business owners, part of your job is to help them focus on what counts. Whether you are a business consultant, accountant, attorney, or financial planner, you have an obligation to help separate the wheat from the chaff. When it comes to running a successful business, tariffs, sanctions, inflation, and interest rates are often just chaff.
You can help your clients—and solidify your position as a trusted advisor—by guiding them to ask the necessary questions:
- How much will this really affect your business?
- Have you run the numbers?
- Does it require a change in what you do, or how you do it?
- If a change is called for, will taking immediate action have a substantially greater impact than simply including it in your next planning cycle?
Of course, sometimes the answer to those questions may be yes. More frequently, it will be no. Then you and your client are free to discuss the Big Picture—but without the false urgency that television, social media, and newspapers are trying to foist upon them.
John F. Dini develops transition and succession strategies that allow business owners to exit their companies on their own schedule, with the proceeds they seek and complete control over the process. He takes a coaching approach to client engagements, focusing on helping owners of companies with $1M to $250M in revenue achieve both their desired lifestyles and legacies.