Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

John F. Dini

The Brass Ring

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A long, long time ago (I’ve actually ridden only one such in my lifetime) Carousels had a spring-loaded sleeve of brass rings protruding near the innermost (and least popular) track of horses. A bigger kid could lean out and yank a ring from the sleeve with considerable effort, and be rewarded with a free ride.

Today, of course, we can’t even read the description of such an ill-conceived device without cringing at the thoughts of fallen children, their bodies horrifically mangled in the giant gears of the turntable, and the litigation and public outrage that would follow. Times change.

“Reaching for the brass ring” has become a metaphor for chasing success. As I discussed in last week’s column, the massive number of Baby Boomers would have affected the economy regardless of their other tendencies, but their commonality and competitiveness raised that impact by an order of magnitude.

If you are a Boomer business owner, I defy you to say that you’ve never complained about the work ethic of the younger generation. From the mid 70’s to the mid 90’s (prime time for Boomers in the workforce) American white-collar workers saw the rise of an average work week from just over 40 hours to almost 54. This while our European contemporaries were  campaigning for (and winning) 35 hour weeks and ten weeks of vacation. What made American Boomers so competitive?

Our numbers. There were simply too many of us to accommodate at every stage of our lives. Just as the impact of ageing Boomers leaving the workforce will come as a surprise to most, so the flood of people into schools, homes and jobs took the majority of businesses (and governments) by surprise.

I attended public schools in the 1950’s where 45 or 50 children were the norm in a classroom. It had nothing to do with unenlightened teaching methods or weaker unions. There simply weren’t enough classrooms. Between 1945 and 1957 the annual number of new births in the country increased by 53%, from 2.8 million to 4.3 million. They couldn’t build schools fast enough.

When I started college in the late 1960’s, they were pulling trailers into muddy fields and calling them community colleges. There weren’t enough universities for all those who wanted to attend. And when I graduated and applied for a position in corporate America, their hiring offices were like the Department of Motor Vehicles, with group testing and rows of interviewing offices.

It was a time of plenty in America, but there wasn’t enough of what the Boomers were seeking. The “Spock Babies,” as we were called, had been raised to believe that every one of us could, and should, succeed. We all expected the corner executive office, but there weren’t enough places for everyone.

(An aside: I’ve always been curious about Gene Roddenberry’s selection of a name for the First Officer of the Starship Enterprise. Was there some subliminal appeal that helped make Star Trek one of the most popular Boomer shows in history?)

From 1966, when the first Boomers turned 21, through 1975, the rate of college graduations in the United States tripled on an annual basis, from just over 600,000 to nearly 1,700,000 a year. (See the timeline at The Boomer Bust)

Baby Boomers competed for the better places in schools and for admission into the better universities; and then competed fiercely for jobs when they graduated. Once employed, they were part of a glut of other qualified Boomers; roughly the same age, and with similar qualifications. The brass ring went to the ones that worked hardest, longest and smartest. An entire generation accepted competition as a way of life. It was a numerical inevitability.

But many Boomers were squeezed out by the numbers, or were disinclined to engage in a battle for promotions and raises. They still wanted the gratification that Dr. Spock said they should have. They still expected the brass ring.

They went into business for themselves.

From 1975, when the first Boomers turned 30, until 1986, the formation of new businesses in America jumped from 300,000 to 700,000 annually. By 1990, when the oldest Boomers turned 45, the number of new business formations had fallen back to 600,000. It has remained there since. As our population has grown from 190 million to 310 million, the number of business start-ups has been flat.

The massive number of small businesses in the United States, the source of 67% of all new job creation since 1995, is clearly the product of millions of Boomers who sought success outside traditional wage-paying jobs. For the first time since the industrial revolution, (when production consolidated into large enterprises) America became a nation of shopkeepers again.

These are the businesses that are beginning to be sold. Whether there are enough buyers is another question.

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The Pig in the Python

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The title of this section refers to a well-known biological phenomenon. The python family of snakes have hinged jaws that allow them to swallow animals much larger than their heads. These animals are gradually consumed as they pass through the snake’s digestive system. If the prey is very large, you can plainly see the shape of the animal as it moves through the snake.

It is just as easy to identify the progress of the Baby Boom generation through the American population. Whatever stage of life the Boomers were experiencing, the country was experiencing. And we all experienced it together. (see my timeline at The Boomer Bust) Although the pure size of the Boomer generation underlies a lot of its impact, there were two other factors, commonality and competitiveness, that greatly enhanced it.

I grew up in the industrial Middle-Atlantic Northeast. “Ethnicity” in my world meant Polish, Italian, German or Irish. Of course we had discrimination, bigotry and ghettos. I cringe at some of the racist nursery rhymes I was taught by my friends. (Thankfully, if I recited them at home my parents quickly explained why those words were bad.) But we didn’t have Jim Crow laws, or poll tests, and although my schools were largely white, it was as a reflection of the neighborhood, not of the law.

I had no idea what rhubarb or okra were until I was an adult. I had never heard of ice fishing. Iced tea came in one flavor; if you wanted it sweet you put sugar in it. When I was 20 or so, I remember reading a debate in a restaurant industry magazine about whether America was ready to accept a regional ethnic food as mainstream…pizza! I had a pizza parlor on virtually every corner. It shocked me to realize that everyone else didn’t.

Like most early Boomers, I grew up in a culture that was defined by regional and ethnic dominance. Children had for generations grown up with roughly the same attitudes, the same ideas, and the same habits as their parents. They just hadn’t experienced much else.

Then came television. The first stations broadcast in the late 1930’s, and television was a huge hit at the 1939 World’s Fair in New York, but WWII had put a stop to production of TV sets. Returning GIs were ready to spend on consumer goods, and factories built for wartime electronics production were more than ready to deliver. In 1948 the first networks began broadcasting syndicated content, and in 1951 color televisions first became available. The oldest Boomers were 6 years old.

Unlike almost every other country, the United States developed television as a private enterprise. As in radio, content was paid for by commercial advertising. In fact, many of the consumer brands that made radio so successful were the first to move headlong into the new medium.

Thus people watching television became “consumers.” The success of a show was determined by the number of products it sold. How long do you think it took for these advertisers to figure out that two out of every five people in the country could be targeted as a distinct audience? For the first time, a generation was identified as a market, and sold to by age, not by the regional or ethnic orientation of their parents.

The WWII generation had already proven their willingness to spend on their kids. Scarred by the Great Depression, they focused on working to give their kids got the things they had lacked. They started by making Benjamin Spock’s 1946 book, The Common Sense Book of Baby and Child Care a huge hit, buying 500,000 copies in its first six months.  Children’s toys, books and shows quickly became an entire segment of the marketing industry.

For the first time, children were growing up encouraged to perceive themselves as children. They weren’t little adults in training. They weren’t just future farmers, or future factory workers. They were taught by parents and advertisers to think of themselves as children first, and as the life successors of their parents second.

And, for better or worse, 78,000,000 of them were all being raised pretty much the same way, at the same time.

Commonality made the Boomers a cohesive force in the American culture and economy like no generation before them. But sometimes that commonality took on the aspects of a school of fish, where thousands of individuals all turn in the same direction at the same time. This happened again and again and, as you will see, not least in the transformation of small business in America.

When it was combined with Boomer competitiveness, it changed everything. Next week, how the American Baby Boomers became the hardest workers in modern history.

The Approaching Tidal Wave

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A year ago this month, I began speaking to business owner groups about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Since then I’ve delivered the presentation over 20 times, both locally and to national groups, and the requests for it are increasing.

It’s the product of a year of research, and of fifteen years helping business owners prepare to leave their companies. I’m convinced, actually I am certain, that small business owners in America are ignoring a tidal wave of change that, just like a real tidal wave, will leave a few small businesses untouched while wiping many others from the face of the planet.

Am I being dramatic? Absolutely. Am I being overly dramatic? Not in the slightest. Peter Drucker once said “I don’t predict the future. I look at what has happened already and point out the inevitable result.”

Two years ago I set out to learn whether the birth rate curve of the Baby Boomers was duplicated in other areas of American society and the American economy. Not only did that prove to be the case, but the correlation is shockingly perfect. When the Baby Boomers reach  an age where specific life activities would normally be expected, the incidence of those activities escalates overnight (with one notable exception that I’ll discuss in future weeks), in volumes not seen before or since, and exactly corresponding to the birth rate increase that started in 1945.

Describing it as a tidal wave isn’t at all metaphorical. Like a tsunami, it is well documented. The causes are known. It is traveling at a defined rate of speed. Its arrival is both inevitable and on a schedule. It will get higher and more dramatic as it approaches the coastline (Boomer retirement ages), and those who ignore the warning signs will be very, very sorry.

The impact will be universal, but I am going to focus on the implications for small business owners. Those who are exiting now will still have some options between selling to a late-stage Boomer and selling to Generation X, and should know what the differences are. Those Boomer owners who are planning to move on (perhaps not retire – another topic we’ll address) in the next 10 to 15 years need to understand the changed market that they will be selling in. Late-stage Boomers should be building a very different business than the ones they started or purchased. Post Boomer entrepreneurs need to assess the many opportunities that these changes will create.

Let’s start with defining the Baby Boom. Most of us know what it is, but it’s more than just a mere demographic description. Since this entire series will be about the inevitability of numbers, we should put the boomers in an economic context. Their numbers helped determine the personality traits of a generation, and of the generations that followed.

An important fact to understand in our discussion is that the Baby Boom is an American phenomenon. We were late to join World War II, and suffered far fewer causalities as a percentage of our young male population. In addition, the US was never a battlefield in the war, so our returning armies were discharged into a healthy infrastructure, with an industrial base fully geared up for maximum production.

In 1945, as the GIs began returning from WWII, the US population was 140 million, and the birthrate was about 2.8 million. That number of births had been roughly consistent, between 2.5 and 2.9 million, from 1900 onward, with one noticeable dip in the middle of the Great Depression.

In 1946, the birthrate exploded to 3.47 million, a 24% increase in one year! New births broke the 3.5 million mark for the first time in 1947, 4 million in 1954, and peaked at 4.3 million in 1957. They didn’t fall back below 3.5 million a year until 1971, and then didn’t reach the 4 million mark again until 1989.

In 20 years (1945-1964) the United States had added 78 million new, natural-born citizens to the population. By 1965 the US population had grown to about 195,000,000. which meant that two out of every five people in America was under 20 years old!

This was the uniquely American phenomenon that was to influence everything for the next sixty years. The impact of the Baby Boom has changed social and cultural mores, the job market, business structures and economics. As they exit the workplace, the Boomers will have one more giant shift to their credit, and it will change the face of small business in America.

If you are a Boomer business owner, know a Boomer business owner, or provide services to a Boomer business owner, I encourage you to share this first chapter of the series. By the time we reach the end, I can promise you that you will view the next ten years in a whole new light.

Hunting vs. Farming

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At the family gathering, you are being introduced to a distant cousin you haven’t seen since childhood. The introduction usually includes your status as a business owner. “Do you remember little Cousin Bobby? He owns his own company now.” Or you hear it as you pass a conversation; “There goes Rebecca. You know, she has her own business.”

 You know what they are thinking. It may be the somewhat awed tone of being in the presence of success, or a “Who would believe it?” skepticism. When you are a business owner among non-owners, the undercurrent of envy and admiration comes from certain commonly held beliefs about the lifestyle of a business owner.

 You pay yourself as much as you want. As the holder of the checkbook, you can just decide how much salary you need, and take it. After all, if you determine other people’s compensation, so you determine your own, right?

 You only work as much as you want. No one tells you to be in the office by a particular time. No one orders you to stay at your desk until a deadline is met. You can’t get fired for leaving early. You don’t have to accrue vacation. If you work a lot of hours, it’s probably just because you like money so much, and want more. (See belief number one, above.)

 You only do what you want to do. That’s why you have employees. You can pay people to do whatever you don’t like to do. You write your own job description, as well as everyone else’s. No one is crazy enough to write a job description for themselves for a job they wouldn’t want to do! (Are they?)

 Of course, you are probably smiling right now. We know what it takes to start and build something that achieves that level of freedom. It can take years to get there, and it’s seldom an easy road. Many of us never make it that far.

 But it could be true. The vision other people have of an ideal entrepreneur’s life isn’t wrong, it is merely miss-timed. The entrepreneur always believes that such a lifestyle is in the future, it just isn’t here yet. It will just take a lot of work, a lot of talent, and at least a modicum of luck to make it happen.

 It should be true. Along the way, however, many (if not most) entrepreneurs stall in the  “lots of hard work for inadequate reward” stage of building a business. It happens because as the business grows, they are drawn away from what they enjoyed the most, from what they were best at, and into what the business demands that they do. They become farmers.

 Management is farming. Balancing the checkbook is farming. Paying the rent is farming. Locking up the business at night, or opening it in the morning is farming. Purchasing supplies is farming. Writing procedures is farming.

 Bringing in new sources of revenue is hunting. Finding and training great employees is hunting. Closing deals is hunting. Outmaneuvering your competitor is hunting. Motivating people to excel is hunting.

 As an entrepreneur, you owe it to your company, your employees, your customers and yourself not to get tied down in farming activities. You started your business to do what you do best- not so that you could teach yourself a set of skills that you have little inclination to learn.

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The (pen)Ultimate Hire

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Every sane business owner will acknowledge that there is a point at which his or her own skills are no longer sufficient to grow the business beyond its current level. The revenue point where that happens differs by industry, but it frequently begins at around 20 employees.

At that point, an owner becomes swamped by the conflicting needs of managing the existing operation, and having enough time to perform the tasks that made the business grow in the first place.

The owner realizes that further growth requires the addition of a key employee; one who can assume some of the owner’s duties so that he or she can focus on organizational development.

The typical plaint in this situation is “I need someone who can think. An employee who can run things without my daily input, so that I can focus on what I do best.”

But there is another version that is materially different, although it sounds the same on the surface. “I need someone who can run this company without me.” is a far cry from one who can handle day-to-day operating responsibilities.

Many owners fail to look beyond the immediate need for task relief  to determine exactly what this key employee’s long-term role will be. There is a big difference between hiring an SIC (Second In Command) and an SIT (Successor in Training.)

A Second In Command is responsible for assuming some of the owner’s ongoing decision-making and management duties. The SIC’s role is to free the owner to do what he or she is best at (or enjoys the most). The job description is based on the assumption that the owner is present, or at least available, to check off on major decisions and give ongoing guidance.

In my presentation to business owners, “Beating the Boomer Bust” I discuss the likelihood that many owners will have to execute their own succession plan by growing a successor internally. This Successor In Training is more than someone who can merely back fill your skill set. It needs to be someone who can eventually replace your skills in the business.

The common wisdom is that an SIC should compliment, not duplicate, your talents. We advise owners not to hire a “mini-me,” since it is unlikely that you can find someone who has the same motivations to cover all the various skills that ownership requires.

Typically, you take your job description (finance, sales, business development, culture, motivation, operations, marketing, management) and subtract those things that you want to continue doing personally. The rest of the duties become the SIC’s job description.

But the intention of many owners is to develop the SIC into an SIT. An SIT is someone who can eventually assume all of your higher-level duties. He or she has to create value while you are still there by filling in the gaps in your skill set, but must also have the potential to grow into a broader role as you prepare to withdraw from the business.

Of course, you are still in for a long search if you seek a “mini-me.” The likelihood is that your SIT will eventually need an SIC of his or her own. If you can’t run the company by yourself, your successor can’t either. If you need an SIC now who pays closer attention to the numbers and ratios than you do, then that person will eventually need someone to focus on sales and development.

Hiring a key executive is the single most important decision you will make. Don’t begin the process by making the mistake of looking at only the needs you have today. A solid SIC will probably take five years to fully integrate with you. An SIT may take ten. The investment can be wasted if you look only at your immediate needs. Start with a longer-term vision of how you want your role as an owner (or as an ex-owner) to play out.