Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

Building Value

Ambiguity Kills Value

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Ambiguity kills value. That was a key point in a white paper from Orange Kiwi that I read over the holidays. Taken from the PhD thesis of Dr. Allie Taylor, the paper describes the psychological profile of  entrepreneurs, and their historical reluctance to begin an exit planning process.

According to Dr. Taylor, entrepreneurs have five major behavioral traits; Risk Taking, Innovativeness, Need for Achievement, tolerance for Ambiguity and a locus for Control. This follows closely my description of the mind of an entrepreneur in Hunting in a Farmer’s World. In that book I discuss the traits of tenacious problem solving and the ability to navigate in the fog.

Ambiguity and Dopamine

That ability to choose a path where others don’t see a way forward is key to a business owner’s ability to stomach risk. What Dr. Taylor points out, however, is that some owners fall in love with their own tolerance for ambiguity. As Simon Sinek points out in Leaders Eat Last (and I also discuss in Hunting,) problem solving provides an owner with a little shot of Dopamine dozens, or even scores of times daily.

Dopamine is the same neurotransmitter that drives substance abuse. In very real terms, an owner’s need for regular dopamine titillations can make decision making addictive. Anticipating a life without the business can subconsciously create a fear of life without the business.  

That’s why owners are reluctant to discuss exit planning. Despite the obvious wisdom of controlling the most important financial event of a lifetime, the personal void that lies beyond ownership is scary. As with many other potentially unpleasant things, from going to the dentist to funeral prearrangements, it’s easy to deal with it…later.

Ambiguity Kills Value

The problem with embracing ambiguity too much is that it can damage your business. Management by firefighting is costly. As Abraham Lincoln said, “If I had eight hours to cut down a tree, I’d spend seven of those sharpening my saw,” Fixing problems almost always costs more than preventing them. Dealing with distractions reduces the time you have available for selling, creating or teaching.

Avoiding the uncomfortable task of exit planning leaves you much more likely to deal with it in response to one of the Dismal D’s. (Death, Disease, Disability, Divorce, Declining sales, Dissention among owners, Debt, Distraction, Disaster or Disinterest.) That’s when the value of your most important asset, a thriving business, starts to plummet.

We all like a bit of ambiguity. Our decision making abilities are what makes us successful owners. Exit planning should be a process of gathering information about your possible decisions, not a ticking clock controlling your future.

Embracing Your Options

Whether you plan to eventually sell your business to a third party, pass it on to family or create a transfer to employees, you still want to assess your financial performance compared to industry standards. Your management team needs to be able to run the company without you. Your processes should be well documented. Most importantly, you should be thinking about what you will do when those hits of decision-making dopamine stop coming.

Once you have the components in place, you can control the timing, proceeds and method of your transition. Until then, you are just waiting for ambiguity to bite you in the butt.

How prepared are you? Take the ExitMap® preparedness Assessment at www.YourExitMap.com

Four Basics of Exit Planning 1: Valuation

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There are four basics an owner should address before beginning any exit, succession, or transition plan. They are Valuation, Distance to Goal, Prospective Buyers, and Professional Team.

First, my apologies for missing a tri-weekly post. Between trips to Denver for BEI’s National Exit Planning Conference, Dallas for a client, San Antonio for our own XPX Exit Planning Summit, Nashville for the national EPI Exit Planning Summit, and St. Louis for Archford’s Metro Business Owner Summit, I kind of lost track of my posting schedule.

Here is the first of the four basic requirements. I promise not to dally in posting the rest of the full set.

Understanding Valuation

Value is the starting point for all transition planning. Any decision, any business plan, and every retirement projection (either for time frames or finances) must start with the value of your business today.

Knowing the value of your business is different from thinking you know it. I talk to many owners who say “I met a guy at a trade show, and he told me that he knows a guy with a business just like mine who sold his company for five million dollars. I think I’m a little bigger than he was, so I know my business is worth at least six million.”

Sounds foolish? How about “My accountant says that all small business sells for about five times earnings.” Or “Everyone in my industry knows that all companies like ours sell for one and a half times revenue.”

Any valuation estimate that is in the same sentence as “all,” or “everyone” is a crock. Multiples may serve as guidelines, but the value of a specific business is always unique to that business.

How much is a manufacturer of disposable paper products worth? What if they specialize in paper straws? How much does that value change every time McDonald’s or Southwest Airlines announces that they are switching to paper straws? How much is it worth if it is the last paper straw manufacturer in the USA (like Aardvark® Straws?) If you understand the value, your mental estimate should have changed with each sentence.

Every change in the above paragraph described an intangible. Events and market conditions are as important, or in some cases more important, than last year’s numbers. Valuation starts with profitability and cash flow, but the real price that someone will pay for a business lies in the intangibles.

Intangibles

There are scores of intangible factors affecting business value. Most are related to customers, employees, or systems. Ask yourself these questions (although there are many more.)

  • Customers:
    • Do you get more than 20% of your sales from one customer?
    • Is your revenue recurring (by contract) or a series of one-time transactions?
    • Is your value proposition more than just “good service?”
    • Are steady or repeat customers increasing their purchases?
    • Can you forecast their purchasing accurately?
  • Employees:
    • Do you have managers that can run the day to day operations without you?
    • Are your key employees too close to retirement age?
    • Is turnover too high, or nonexistent?
    • Are important positions cross-trained via a formal process?
    • Do you have non-competes and/or long term retention incentives?
  • Systems
    • How accurate is your budgeting when compared to historical reality?
    • Are all processes documented and followed?
    • Is equipment carefully maintained?
    • Our proprietary systems and knowledge protected?
    • Do you track the effectiveness of sales and advertising expenses?

All valuations begin with profitability and cash flow. Most business appraisals take at least a cursory look at a few of the intangibles listed above. Buyers, however, will look at all of these factors and more.

Understanding the four basics of exit planning starts with valuation. If you don’t know where you are, it’s tough to plan where you are going.

For over twenty years, business owners have asked me “What can I do to increase the value of my company?” My answer is always the same.

“Exactly what you should be doing to improve it every day.”

Do you think you know the value of your business? Try the “Sellers Sanity Check,” a free tool at YourExitMap.com

Invest 15 Minutes and take our FREE Exit Readiness Assessment. We do not request any confidential information.

John F. Dini develops transition and succession strategies that allow business owners to exit their companies on their own schedule, with the proceeds they seek and complete control over the process. He takes a coaching approach to client engagements, focusing on helping owners of companies with $1M to $250M in revenue achieve both their desired lifestyles and legacies

Exit Planning: Ripples and Ripples.

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Every stone thrown into a pond creates ripples. Every advance in technology does the same.

The late Stephen Hawking said that we were progressing too quickly. Along with other technology and science notables, he argued for a slowing down of development in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Most current “AI” is actually machine learning. As computing speed increases exponentially, the ability of a computer to calculate, test hypotheses and weigh varying outcomes increases as well. Computers can now beat the best humans at every game ever invented. From Chess to Go, and from Texas Hold ‘Em to Ms. Pac Man, binary geniuses are sorting through billions of possibilities, and even being credited with rudimentary “intuition.”

But Machine Learning isn’t intelligence. A computer can sort through every chess move possible, but has trouble deciding what to do when a person with a bicycle steps out between two cars.  What if the correct answer is to swerve into oncoming traffic? A computer can’t make that call.

Robots on the Roads

That doesn’t mean you can be smug about what is coming. Take autonomous trucks. Clearly they aren’t smart enough (yet) to negotiate narrow city streets, bumper to bumper traffic jams or unload oddly-shaped cargo. That would require some real intelligence. But they don’t have to. They can just take care of the 80% of the easy stuff, long haul driving. Automatically driving great distances on relatively clear roads is completely feasible right now.

What if autonomous trucks were limited to driving from 8:00 PM to 6:00 AM? A few lanes on interstate highways could easily be electronically tagged for higher speed,  and robot-truck only use. They can follow more closely, having both quicker reaction times and the connected ability to “see” what is happening further ahead. A truck that doesn’t have to stop for food or sleep could cover a lot of ground in ten hours of high speed driving. Daytimes would be reserved for human-operated local delivery.

Ripples in the Pond.

How much would that affect trucking and other industries?

There would be far fewer driver jobs, although most drivers would likely be closer to home.

Traffic would be greatly lessened during the day. Good, you say? Tell that to the paving contractors, sign companies, crane operators, orange cone manufacturers, lighting and signal electricians or bridge builders. It could be decades before we have to expand highway capacity again. With the speed of technological advancement, decades could translate into “never.”

Is this good news for truck stops, all night diners, and budget motels? Heavy equipment manufacturers? Civil engineering companies? Public sector spending on highway construction is almost $100 billion every year. For comparison, that’s about the size of the whole digital/streaming TV and video industry.

Returning to the trucking industry itself, I doubt that trucks will remain as “one size fits all.”  Current testing is on models than can be autonomous, but also accommodate a human driver. The latter will go away. Robotic models can greatly reduce size, be more aerodynamic, and weigh less. They would also be more fuel efficient, and could be electric.

Uh oh. Trucks consume almost a quarter of all the petroleum products used in the U.S. That starts the conversation about the impact on oil companies, the fuel distribution network, gas dispenser manufacturers, drillers, pipeline construction, tank fabrication and installation…the ripples continue.

As an Exit Planner, I’m predisposed to look down the road, and to consider the risk in every transfer. Not all scenarios are doom and gloom, and many new industries will be born, most of which I can’t imagine.

I guess my message is that none of us should be smug about the future. If the financial community sees a threat on the horizon, expect lenders and investors to run the other way, fast. We watch the stones. They watch the ripples.

 

 

Selling Your Business – the Buyer’s Eyes

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Selling your business is much like selling a house. In order to realize the highest price possible, you want it to look its best.

The other day I passed an independent gas station/convenience store. The marquee at the curb advertised  their price for “unlead” gas. Really? Unleaded fuel has been required for new cars since 1975. Lead was completely banned as an additive 22 years ago. That means anyone who has bought a new car in the last 40-plus years, and every driver under 40 years old, has never purchased anything but unleaded gas.

What does that indicate about the maintenance of the business? If it has been decades since they updated their sign, what have they done with their refrigeration, roof, and other, more costly items of the infrastructure? Their P&L and cash flow are suspect, and due diligence will be more extensive. All because the first thing you see is an outdated sign.

First Impressions Count

In Steve Martin’s “LA Story” his girlfriend (Marilu Henner) checks her wardrobe by closing her eyes, spinning around in front of the mirror, opening her eyes, and removing the first thing she notices.

Very early in my working career I was in retail. My training manager taught me the same technique. Each day I walked out to the edge of the street in front of the business. I stood with my back to the business and my eyes closed. “Pretend you’ve never done business with us before,” he told me, “Then turn around, open your eyes, and see how our business looks to a new customer.”

I’ve used that exercise ever since. When I was actively brokering businesses, I remained acutely aware of first impressions. A parking lot with weeds in all the cracks or sidewalk seams. A front office with stacks of unfiled invoices on top of the cabinets. A conference room with six month old notes on the whiteboard. An owner’s office that doubled as storage for samples.

My favorite is the “Employee of the Month” board that was last updated years ago.

Staging for a Sale

Most small business owners seeking to sell ask “What can I do to get the best price?” Surprisingly, many pushed back on my staging suggestions. “I’m selling a profitable business, not a parking lot.” “Those invoices show that we are busy shipping product instead of filing.” “If a new owner wants to reinstate the employee of the month, the board is there and ready.”

Selling your business isn’t a joking matter. I want to do the best job I can for the client. If the first suggestions I make are shrugged off, what will happen when the client has to execute the more difficult tasks like preparing due diligence information?

Fortunately there were other brokers who would gladly list any business, in any condition. I was happy to let these brokers put in the effort. My time was too valuable to invest in a client who refused to see his business through the eyes of a buyer.

Business Buyers and Disintermediation

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In the last post, we discussed the reluctance of many prospective business buyers to deal with the regulatory burden of being an employer or service provider. You may be among the lucky few whose profession doesn’t require licensing. Even better, you may have qualified employees who are able to run the business without you.

There are other issues that concern younger buyers, however. One of these is the threat of disintermediation. That’s a trendy word for what we used to call “bypassing the middle man,” but it applies to many businesses that are being made obsolete by technology.

Disintermediated Businesses

How many business people still rent cars to attend a couple of meetings in a city? With Lyft and Uber, it is frequently easier to call a ride than leave a car in the (expensive) hotel parking for 90% of a visit. I’d be very skeptical of buying a car rental business today.

What happens when (not if) autonomous vehicles become part of daily life? Long-haul trucking will move to non-peak traffic hours, reducing the need for drivers, training schools, highway expansion, truck stops, and perhaps the number of trucks themselves.

Service businesses where the middleman lends expertise (easily duplicated by Internet research) or access to vendors are feeling the crunch already. The warning bell is sounding for mortgage companies, real estate agents, insurance and benefit brokers, employment agencies, printers, publishers, and travel agents.

These businesses won’t go away, but there will be fewer of them, and their margins are eroding.

The rise of robotics and artificial intelligence threatens even the most skilled professions. Legal databases, automated interpretation of medical imaging and free online tax filing are a few examples.

This quote is from a  February 21 essay by Rob Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

As I have been discussing for the past two years, technology-enabled disruption means workers increasingly being replaced by technology. It also means that existing business models are being supplanted by new models, often technology-enabled, for more efficiently selling or distributing goods and services. In addition, consumers are increasingly being able to use technology to shop for goods and services at lower prices with greater convenience—having the impact of reducing the pricing power of businesses which has, in turn, caused them to further intensify their focus on creating greater operational efficiencies. These trends appear to be accelerating.

The Impact on Sellers

The overview of the business seller’s marketplace is straightforward. As I’ve been proselytizing for over a decade in my “Boomer Bust” presentations and books, selling a business will be more challenging, but that doesn’t mean any particular business is unsellable.

As with any other competition, the response is to create differentiation from the rest of the pack. There are a few key factors that top the list of appealing differentiators for business buyers.

  1. Build a business that can run without you. The more you work in your business, the less it is worth.
  2. Train effective management. Employees who understand how to run a profitable business are highly appealing to any prospective buyer. In addition, they can provide you with an alternative to a third-party sale.
  3. Upgrade the value-added component of your offering. If the only benefit you offer to a customer is time and place utility, you are probably toast.

There is another factor that may sound counterintuitive. Design your business so that it requires more expensive employees. If low wage workers are the backbone of what you do, you risk losing the technology arms race with larger competitors. I’ll expand on this in my next post.

The population of business buyers is younger, more technologically savvy, and less inclined to long hours than the generation that is selling. Winning in a competitive marketplace demands that you offer what business buyers want.