Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

Life After

Ageing Boomer Entrepreneurs: Fearful or Smart?

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Do we become more cautious with age?

Startups are usually associated with younger entrepreneurs. By the time they reach their 50s or 60s business owners tend to tackle fewer big new ideas. Those that do tend to be successful enough that they can segregate the risk in a way that won’t threaten their core livelihood. Are they smarter, or just more fearful of failure?

There are any number of business axioms about the value of experience. “Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.” or “Good decisions come from experience. Experience comes from bad decisions.” Does the caution that accompanies age come from experience, or just from a natural reduction in adrenalin?

The youngest Baby Boomers turn 50 this year. Collectively, they represent over half the small business ownership in the United States. There is an important macroeconomic issue attached to the general ageing of owners. If risk-aversion is a biologic phenomenon, then we can expect millions of small employers to drift into “harvest mode,” maintaining their businesses as vehicles for current cash flow and retirement security. They will leave growth and innovation to a younger, but substantially smaller group of entrepreneurs.

Some of their caution is due to external influence. As companies grow and founders age, they become far more conscious of their responsibility to employees’ families and children. Putting everything on the line has potential impact not only on workers, but the extended small economy that depends on their wages. Greater responsibility generates greater caution.

danger aheadWhen you are starting out, have fewer people depending on you, and mistakes have fewer consequences (see my 2014 post The Luxury of No Resources),  it’s easier to take a leap. If you fail, you’re not much worse off than you were before. But there are costs to learning by trial and error. After a while, going back to the drawing board becomes tiresome.

Ideally, the caution that comes with age isn’t from fear. It’s because you’ve come to appreciate the value of planning. It’s not because you are afraid to make a mistake, but rather you want to avoid the delays that come with making repairs every time you hit a pothole.

Every school of business wisdom extols the value of planning. When we are younger, we tend to ignore it. We scoff at Abraham Lincoln’s quote “If I had eight hours to cut down a tree; I’d spend seven sharpening my saw.” The tree is right in front of us. The saw is in our hands. We can sharpen as we go. Sometimes that works. Often it doesn’t.

Many Boomer owners will operate from a fear of failure. Their businesses will fade as the world continues to change around them and they don’t adjust. Hopefully, they’ve been successful enough in the past to exit comfortably.

Some, likely a small minority, still seek to leave a bigger legacy. They have a shorter time frame, lacking the 30 or 40 years of a full career ahead of them. They’ve learned to spend the seven hours sharpening, so that the hour spent sawing is easier and more productive. Those entrepreneurs will adjust to change on their own timetable, but  with far better results.

Their caution isn’t from fear, but from experience.

 

Investing in Your Own Business: Will It Pay Off?

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A few months ago a business owner asked me to evaluate an acquisition offer for his small business. It was from a larger company headquartered in a different region of the country. They had a branch operation in his city, and wanted to expand their presence by combining it with his.

For an opening offer, the deal seemed very reasonable to me. The purchase price was about four times EBITDA, with half in cash and half with interest over the next three years, and without any conditions attached. (note: That doesn’t mean conditions wouldn’t have come later.) He would receive a three-year employment agreement at a higher salary than he currently paid himself, with additional bonuses for growing the business plus all the benefits he currently enjoyed.

He was unhappy with my assessment, and announced his intention to counter-offer for double the proposed purchase price, with a perpetual employment agreement that would allow him to work for as long as he chose.

While any opening offer is subject to negotiation, I expressed my doubts about attaining a public-company or strategic-level multiple, especially when accompanied by an employment agreement that would make any labor attorney flip out. I asked him how he planned to justify his asking price.

empty wallet“It just isn’t enough to retire,” he said. “I’d have to keep working indefinitely, and I don’t want to have to go find another job if this doesn’t pan out.”

Please understand; presenting this story in the abbreviated way that I have makes this owner sound like he is clueless or ignorant. Neither is the case. He has run this business for years, and built it to several times the revenue and profitability of when he acquired it. He has sacrificed personally, putting in long hours and scrimping financially to reinvest in his company. He  qualifies as a successful small business owner by most measurements of small business success.

But as a mid-generation Boomer (late 50s) he is coming to the realization that it may not be enough. Like many others, he decided that investing in his own business was more controllable and would produce a higher return than the vagaries of stock markets and  mutual funds. His business is his retirement account, and like hundreds of thousands of others, he eventually came to believe his own claim. He expected his company to fund his retirement, without really looking at its objective value in the marketplace.

I asked him if doubling the price would achieve his retirement goal. He thought for a moment, and said “I don’t know, but I doubt it.”

There are roughly 5,500,000 Baby Boomer business owners entering, or already well into, their retirement windows. (The oldest Boomers turn 70 this year.) Many have the expectation that their company is their retirement plan, but there is no assurance that it’s true. If you are over 50 years old, I strongly recommend that you do three things:

  1. Download and read my eBook “Beating the Boomer Bust.” It’s a collection of ten blog posts  from this site with an overview of the challenges that are inevitable with the wave of retiring Boomer exits.. It’s short (45 pages) and its free.
  2. Get an objective valuation for your business. You don’t need a full appraisal. An opinion of value can range from free to a few thousand dollars, but it shouldn’t cost more than that. (You pretty much get what you pay for, though.) It is critical to understand where you are today.
  3. Get a realistic projection for how much you will need to maintain your target lifestyle in retirement. A Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) has the training and software to include inflation and tax assumptions. Again, many insurance agents and stockbrokers will provide this for free, but I prefer someone who does it without offering products for sale based on the result.

Disclosure: I offer exit consulting for business owners, but I do not provide valuation services, financial planning, wealth management, tax guidance or insurance. I’m just trying to have fewer conversations like the one above. Additional information, including a free, online self-assessment of your business, is at http://exitmap.com.

 

 A Note to My Readers

This January marks the start of my seventh full year of writing Awake at 2 o’clock on a weekly basis. I got serious with the publishing of “The Strategic Triple Threat” in January of 2009, which will probably stand forever as my most accurate piece of economic prognostication. :-)

Many thanks to the hundreds of you who have commented, and who come up to me at speaking events and say “I’ve been reading your blog for years.” If you read regularly and find yourself nodding in agreement or quoting a column, then I feel that I’m doing my job.

It’s a big, wide Internet out there. Like any blogger, I’m thrilled that I touch so many people with helpful information, but would always like to reach more. Please help by taking a few minutes to pass along a link to any business owners or advisors that you think might also enjoy an owner’s point of view.

Thank you

If you would like a printable pdf of this column or any other, please let me know at jdini@mpninc.com.

Boomer Business Owners’ Retirement Accelerates

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Pepperdine University, in cooperation with the International Business Brokers Association and the M&A Source, publishes a quarterly Market Pulse Survey on the sale of small businesses in the United States. The most recent report, covering the fourth quarter of 2012, shows that “retiring Baby Boomers” is for the first time the number one reason for selling a small business in the United States.

I’ve written since 2007  in this space and elsewhere about the impact of Boomer business owners leaving their companies. You can download my e-book on the subject at www.theboomerbust.com. (The password for my faithful readers is “Woodstock.”) The Market Pulse Survey is just the latest indicator of a crest that is building, and which will have a huge impact on the American business landscape.

hedge mazeIf you are as acutely aware of the impact of Boomers on the American economy as I am, you begin to see it in a lot of places. I attended a luncheon with an official of the Federal Reserve a few weeks ago, and a question was raised about the recovery of residential housing. He pointed out that the introduction of 30-year mortgages with only 20% down transformed the US into a country of homeowners.

Home ownership grew to over 60% of households by 1960, fueled by larger families (Boomer children) and the GI Bill. It stabilized at around 65% from the 1970s through the late 1990s, when it began climbing again, largely as a result of political pressure to let the Federal Government (through their proxies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) make mortgages available to a wider portion of the population. By 2007, the percentage of homeowners had reached almost 70%.

Residential housing markets began cratering in 2007, largely because too many people had been financed into homes they couldn’t really afford. They weren’t just the poor, but also included millions of Boomers who “traded up” in their quest for material success. (See the e-book for more on that Boomer drive.) The presenter pointed out that the population of homeowners was now stabilizing at much closer to 65%, which is assumed to be the normal equilibrium.

What if that is only a “Boomer equilibrium?” After all, the growth in home ownership occurred in a 50-year long expanding economy fueled by Boomers, first as household size increased, then as they became consumers. Aren’t we working with an assumption that the following generations will repeat the Boomer quest for more? Will GenX and the Millennials really get in line to splurge on ageing McMansions, or will they be satisfied with a more reasonable standard of functional shelter?

If the housing market suffered so badly in adjusting from a temporary high of 70% back to a more “normal” level of 65%, what will it look like if the next normal is 60%, or even 55%? (Prior to WWII only about 40% of US households owned their homes.)

The Market Pulse Survey also found that it is increasingly a buyer’s market for small businesses. That trend will inevitably accelerate, especially as we reach the 2018-2023 period, when Boomers turning 65 years old out number the GenXers turning 45 by 4,000 a day. If you are a young business owner, or plan to be one, the time is coming when you can pick and choose your opportunities.

But I’d be cautious of businesses focused on high-end residences.

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The Brass Ring

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A long, long time ago (I’ve actually ridden only one such in my lifetime) Carousels had a spring-loaded sleeve of brass rings protruding near the innermost (and least popular) track of horses. A bigger kid could lean out and yank a ring from the sleeve with considerable effort, and be rewarded with a free ride.

Today, of course, we can’t even read the description of such an ill-conceived device without cringing at the thoughts of fallen children, their bodies horrifically mangled in the giant gears of the turntable, and the litigation and public outrage that would follow. Times change.

“Reaching for the brass ring” has become a metaphor for chasing success. As I discussed in last week’s column, the massive number of Baby Boomers would have affected the economy regardless of their other tendencies, but their commonality and competitiveness raised that impact by an order of magnitude.

If you are a Boomer business owner, I defy you to say that you’ve never complained about the work ethic of the younger generation. From the mid 70’s to the mid 90’s (prime time for Boomers in the workforce) American white-collar workers saw the rise of an average work week from just over 40 hours to almost 54. This while our European contemporaries were  campaigning for (and winning) 35 hour weeks and ten weeks of vacation. What made American Boomers so competitive?

Our numbers. There were simply too many of us to accommodate at every stage of our lives. Just as the impact of ageing Boomers leaving the workforce will come as a surprise to most, so the flood of people into schools, homes and jobs took the majority of businesses (and governments) by surprise.

I attended public schools in the 1950’s where 45 or 50 children were the norm in a classroom. It had nothing to do with unenlightened teaching methods or weaker unions. There simply weren’t enough classrooms. Between 1945 and 1957 the annual number of new births in the country increased by 53%, from 2.8 million to 4.3 million. They couldn’t build schools fast enough.

When I started college in the late 1960’s, they were pulling trailers into muddy fields and calling them community colleges. There weren’t enough universities for all those who wanted to attend. And when I graduated and applied for a position in corporate America, their hiring offices were like the Department of Motor Vehicles, with group testing and rows of interviewing offices.

It was a time of plenty in America, but there wasn’t enough of what the Boomers were seeking. The “Spock Babies,” as we were called, had been raised to believe that every one of us could, and should, succeed. We all expected the corner executive office, but there weren’t enough places for everyone.

(An aside: I’ve always been curious about Gene Roddenberry’s selection of a name for the First Officer of the Starship Enterprise. Was there some subliminal appeal that helped make Star Trek one of the most popular Boomer shows in history?)

From 1966, when the first Boomers turned 21, through 1975, the rate of college graduations in the United States tripled on an annual basis, from just over 600,000 to nearly 1,700,000 a year. (See the timeline at The Boomer Bust)

Baby Boomers competed for the better places in schools and for admission into the better universities; and then competed fiercely for jobs when they graduated. Once employed, they were part of a glut of other qualified Boomers; roughly the same age, and with similar qualifications. The brass ring went to the ones that worked hardest, longest and smartest. An entire generation accepted competition as a way of life. It was a numerical inevitability.

But many Boomers were squeezed out by the numbers, or were disinclined to engage in a battle for promotions and raises. They still wanted the gratification that Dr. Spock said they should have. They still expected the brass ring.

They went into business for themselves.

From 1975, when the first Boomers turned 30, until 1986, the formation of new businesses in America jumped from 300,000 to 700,000 annually. By 1990, when the oldest Boomers turned 45, the number of new business formations had fallen back to 600,000. It has remained there since. As our population has grown from 190 million to 310 million, the number of business start-ups has been flat.

The massive number of small businesses in the United States, the source of 67% of all new job creation since 1995, is clearly the product of millions of Boomers who sought success outside traditional wage-paying jobs. For the first time since the industrial revolution, (when production consolidated into large enterprises) America became a nation of shopkeepers again.

These are the businesses that are beginning to be sold. Whether there are enough buyers is another question.

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Hunting vs. Farming

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At the family gathering, you are being introduced to a distant cousin you haven’t seen since childhood. The introduction usually includes your status as a business owner. “Do you remember little Cousin Bobby? He owns his own company now.” Or you hear it as you pass a conversation; “There goes Rebecca. You know, she has her own business.”

 You know what they are thinking. It may be the somewhat awed tone of being in the presence of success, or a “Who would believe it?” skepticism. When you are a business owner among non-owners, the undercurrent of envy and admiration comes from certain commonly held beliefs about the lifestyle of a business owner.

 You pay yourself as much as you want. As the holder of the checkbook, you can just decide how much salary you need, and take it. After all, if you determine other people’s compensation, so you determine your own, right?

 You only work as much as you want. No one tells you to be in the office by a particular time. No one orders you to stay at your desk until a deadline is met. You can’t get fired for leaving early. You don’t have to accrue vacation. If you work a lot of hours, it’s probably just because you like money so much, and want more. (See belief number one, above.)

 You only do what you want to do. That’s why you have employees. You can pay people to do whatever you don’t like to do. You write your own job description, as well as everyone else’s. No one is crazy enough to write a job description for themselves for a job they wouldn’t want to do! (Are they?)

 Of course, you are probably smiling right now. We know what it takes to start and build something that achieves that level of freedom. It can take years to get there, and it’s seldom an easy road. Many of us never make it that far.

 But it could be true. The vision other people have of an ideal entrepreneur’s life isn’t wrong, it is merely miss-timed. The entrepreneur always believes that such a lifestyle is in the future, it just isn’t here yet. It will just take a lot of work, a lot of talent, and at least a modicum of luck to make it happen.

 It should be true. Along the way, however, many (if not most) entrepreneurs stall in the  “lots of hard work for inadequate reward” stage of building a business. It happens because as the business grows, they are drawn away from what they enjoyed the most, from what they were best at, and into what the business demands that they do. They become farmers.

 Management is farming. Balancing the checkbook is farming. Paying the rent is farming. Locking up the business at night, or opening it in the morning is farming. Purchasing supplies is farming. Writing procedures is farming.

 Bringing in new sources of revenue is hunting. Finding and training great employees is hunting. Closing deals is hunting. Outmaneuvering your competitor is hunting. Motivating people to excel is hunting.

 As an entrepreneur, you owe it to your company, your employees, your customers and yourself not to get tied down in farming activities. You started your business to do what you do best- not so that you could teach yourself a set of skills that you have little inclination to learn.

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