Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

economy

Prepared for 2023 – Is This the Year to Exit?

by

What does being prepared for 2023 mean for business owners who are approaching, at, or already beyond normal retirement age?

It’s become fashionable to pontificate about the “inevitable” recession in the coming year. There is an argument for not talking ourselves into making it happen. Unfortunately, there are indisputable reasons why it is going to occur regardless of whether we discuss it or not.

Inflationary stimulus (including $6 trillion of ”quantitative easing”) in the US, combined with over-dependency on Russian gas supply in Europe and falling industrial production from COVID lockdowns in China have created the proverbial slow-motion car wreck for the world economy. All three will come home to roost for the world’s major markets in 2023.

What will happen?
Just as the result of these failures in leadership is eminently predictable, the impact on businesses in transition is equally plain.

Company valuations will decline. Inflated multiples fueled by low interest rates for leveraged buyouts have already disappeared. If you are planning your retirement around the value of a year or two ago, it is time to reassess.

A corollary to declining multiples will be a lack of financing. Market conditions directly impact the availability of acquisition funding. Already, Wall Street has seen a 90% drop in IPOs.

Running a business will get tougher for some time. The ”Great Resignation” is actually only half driven by increasing worker mobility. The other half is from Boomer retirements. As employees seek a counterbalance to inflation, staffing will be an even bigger issue than sales volume.

Many owners will look back at 2022 as the year they finally decided that enough is enough. Owners overcame the dot-com crash, 9/11, and the Great Recession. Now a combination of resurgent inflation, supply chain headaches and a lack of qualified workers will tip the scales toward developing an exit strategy.

What can an owner do?
Lower valuations call for creativity in structuring transactions. Employee buyouts and ESOPs that maximize the benefits of sustainable cash flow can provide owners with income that wouldn’t be available from a hard-negotiated third-party sale.

Seller financing or installment sales may offer flexibility that brings more qualified buyers to the table. Stretching out proceeds as recurring income can help a seller wind up with more in his or her pocket, albeit over a longer time period.

Retaining your top talent will be more important than ever, especially if wages continue to rise. Structured equity sales can act as both an incentive and “golden handcuffs” to ensure that a company’s best employees, and consequently its enterprise value, remain intact through dips in revenue.

Prepared for 2023
Many owners were lulled into a false sense of security by frequent calls from business brokers and private equity groups. They may have postponed their planning in the belief that a transition could always happen whenever they felt the urge.

When the phone stops ringing, they will need cooler heads to help them understand that there are options besides a fire sale. Equity can be retained, and retirement can be secured. Work with an advisor who understands the alternatives to “List it and they will come.”

Companies will still be sold in the coming year. Prices may be lower, but are only falling from the unrealistic high driven by cheap money. It may feel like you are getting less than market value, but multiples have only receded to their historical mean.

If this is the year for you to begin your “second act,” it’s still the same approach as it was before. Being prepared for 2023 is a matter of researching the market, planning the process, and hiring qualified professionals.

John F. Dini develops transition and succession strategies that allow business owners to exit their companies on their own schedule, with the proceeds they seek and complete control over the process. He takes a coaching approach to client engagements, focusing on helping owners of companies with $1M to $250M in revenue achieve both their desired lifestyles and legacies.

The Dismal Ds and Exit Planning

by

The “Dismal Ds” is an inside joke in exit planning. Every industry and profession has them. In some, it’s “You can have it done well, done fast, or done cheaply. Pick any two.” In planning it’s “Sooner or later, every owner exits his or her business… 100% guaranteed.”

Clearly, that refers to the unplanned but inevitable departure from the biggest D – Death. That isn’t the only D, however. There are others, NONE of which lead to a controlled, lucrative, or enjoyable transition. Most start with dis- defined as “dis– 1. a Latin prefix meaning “apart,” “asunder,” “away,” “utterly,” or having a privative, negative, or reversing force.”

The other Dismal Ds include:

  • Disease – the critical illness of the owner or an irreplaceable employee.
  • Dissension – between partners, shareholders, or family members
  • Disaster – Fire, flood, storm, or accident
  • Disability – An owner’s inability to oversee operations
  • Disinterest – of the founder or next-generation ownership
  • Distraction – When an owner’s focus is elsewhere. (frequently love or bar ownership)
  • Disarray – More simply, bad management
  • Dishonor – financial fraud or other skulduggery
  • Disenchantment – A fancy word for burnout
  • Divorce – a bitter fight over the business asset or its value
  • Debt – Leverage taken on in good times but no longer sustainable
  • Depression – Economic malaise (think hospitality in 2020.)
  • Defection– The poaching or bolting of a key employee, frequently in sales
  • Defenestration – Getting thrown from a window

(Okay, I may have gone too far with that last one, but I couldn’t resist.)

Planning – The Cure for the Dismal Ds

The point is, there are many ways of a forced exit from your business due to circumstances. Some might be beyond your control, but most can be avoided.

  • Disease – Have solid business continuity instructions in place
  • Dissension – Start with a good buy/sell or shareholders’ agreement that makes it plain how disagreements will be handled
  • Disaster – Fire, flood, storm, or accidents can be insured, including for loss of revenue.
  • Disability – Business continuity instructions again
  • Disinterest – Start implementing an exit plan before your business shows the effect. For example, in brokerage, we used to say “Show me an owner who says he is burned out, and I’ll show you financial statements that evidenced the problem three years ago.”
  • Distraction – Don’t buy a bar. Don’t buy another business. Don’t have an affair.
  • Disarray – Get help. Consulting, coaching and peer groups all work.
  • Dishonor – Have an outside party check your systems and security.
  • Disenchantment – See Disinterest
  • Divorce – Settle the value of the business first, preferably before the lawyers do it for you.
  • Debt – Limit your debt to half what your current cash flow can service.
  • Depression – If you have to cut expenses, do so deeply and quickly.
  • Defection– Two words- employment agreements
  • Defenestration – Stay away from the Departed, or Irish, Italian, and Jewish mobsters in general. Alternatively, live where there are only low-rise buildings.

Dismal DsI obviously have my tongue firmly planted in cheek for this column, but my point should be clear. Your business is probably the most valuable asset in your life. Losing it to unplanned events hurts. So even if you are no longer in the picture, you have some responsibility to your family, employees and customers.

A good exit plan, whether it’s for implementation now or years down the road, should take many, if not all of the Dismal Ds into account. All entrepreneurs want control over their future. That is why they are entrepreneurs. Planning isn’t merely an intellectual exercise. It’s all about control.

John F. Dini, CExP, CEPA is an exit planning coach and the President of MPN Incorporated in San Antonio Texas. He is the author of Your Exit Map: Navigating the Boomer Bust, and two other books on business ownership. If you want to see how prepared you are for transition, take the 15-minute Assessment at MPNInc.com/ExitMap. 

 

Your Exit Plan: The 3 Inarguable Reasons to Start NOW

by

What is Your Exit Plan?

If you’ve ever done a business plan for the purpose of raising capital, one of the key questions is “What is your exit plan?” Many business owners think that question is self-serving, intended merely to let the venture capitalists figure when and how they will get their return on investment. In truth, however, that question is far more important.

An exit plan is a strategic plan with an end date. Putting a time frame on your plan, and defining the goals to be achieved by that date, creates a future-focused mindset for the owner. It controls and reduces your tendency to prioritize daily firefighting over long term thinking. It provides you with a yardstick to measure progress. Most importantly, it affects your thinking about almost everything in your business.

Here are the 3 inarguable reasons why you should start your exit plan now.

Reason #1: It’s Never Too Soon

your exit planIn my years of working with business owners, I’ve helped many transfer their businesses to family and employees. I’ve worked with others who sold their companies to a third party for tens of millions of dollars.

Surveys show that many owners have regrets afterward. Others happily move into the next phase of their lives or careers. A few have seller’s remorse. On the other end of the spectrum, some come to the realization that they hated their business owner lives for years. The majority feel that they received a reasonable reward for monetizing their work of decades.

None of them. NOT ONE of them, has ever said “I spent too much time planning.”

It’s likely that the sale of your business will be the most important financial event of your life. There are a few lucky owners who have wealth outside or beyond the value of their businesses, but for most of us monetizing those decades of effort is the culmination of our working careers.

If your exit plan is to transfer to family, you can choose vehicles like Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRAT) or Self Cancelling Installment Notes (SCIN).  These may have to be in place for years to substantially reduce or eliminate taxable proceeds for you and/or your heirs.

In a sale to employees, developing the documentation that shows their assumption of managerial responsibilities over time is a basic qualification for SBA loan approval. That, plus developing their “down payment” equity, punches the ticket for you to walk away with your proceeds in pocket on the same day that you cede control of the company.

In a sale to third parties, the condition of the financial markets at your time of exit will decide the size of your multiple.  Preparing your business with due diligence in mind, and understanding the different classes of buyers, (see my post on identifying a buyer) allows you to better choose the time, method and proceeds of your transition.

Although it is difficult to time the stock market, shifts in acquisition multiples take much longer to develop.  Being prepared allows you to enter the market while prices are at a peak.

Five years is a reasonable planning time. Ten years is better. There is no time frame that’s “too far out” to be thinking about your exit.

Reason # 2: It Changes Your Thinking

It’s difficult to run a business without being reactive. Employee issues, customer problems, and vendor policies can shift your priorities on a daily basis.

When your exit plan is in place, you have a broader perspective. Every decision you make is now in the context of “Does this support my bigger picture?” There are numerous examples.

Hiring: If your exit plan is to pass the business on to your children, then hiring becomes a support function. You look for employees who can fill in areas where your offspring lack the necessary skills, or don’t have an interest.

If you plan to sell to employees, then you are looking for a Successor in Training (SIT). That is someone who shares many characteristics with you. If you are selling to a third party, you want a Second in Command (SIC). That is someone who compliments your strengths, and who can be contractually incented to stay on the job with a new owner. (See my piece on SIT vs. SIC here.) Securing a management team adds considerable value to any company.

Lease vs. Buy: If your plan calls for selling to someone who is likely to relocate the company, or who already has your production capabilities, you may want capital equipment to be easily disposable. A competitor or much larger acquirer may want to leave the equipment out of the transaction. In a Main Street business, you may choose to have a strong tangible asset base for an entrepreneurial owner to use when obtaining acquisition financing.

Real Estate: Should you own your building? Some buyers (say a publicly-traded acquirer) prefer to lease space. In that case, owning your building could provide a post-transition income stream in your retirement.

On the other hand, a relocated company could stick the owner/landlord with a special purpose building that requires significant remodeling to be rentable.

These are just a few of the decisions that are better made in the context of your long term plan. The decisions you are making in your business today all have lasting implications.

Reason #3: A Plan is not an Action

youe exit planIf you are taking a long trip, you likely determine the route before you start out. If it is complex, you may print out the directions. Nonetheless, you are still likely to use a wayfinding app to alert you to problems along the way, like traffic jams or construction.

But everyone understands that printing out the directions isn’t the same as beginning the journey. You might take that step days or even weeks before actually getting into your car.

It’s the same with your exit plan. Choosing your time frame and preferred method of transition isn’t the same as making it happen. Writing it down is a key component of preparation, but it shouldn’t be confused with implementation.

Starting Your Exit Plan

Venture capitalists ask an entrepreneur  “What is your exit plan?” because the answer shows that he or she has thought through the implications of their decisions. They have built the business with a purpose beyond merely growing or getting through the next cycle. It shows that the allocation of resources, the selection of personnel, and choices in product and service offerings are coordinated.

There will be obstacles along the way. Your strategy may shift to compensate for new technology or changing market tastes. As the company grows in your chosen direction, you could just be having too much fun to leave on your originally planned date.

But those changes will be conscious. You will see how new factors fit with your plan, and when they don’t. Course adjustments keep the goal in mind. Alternatively, you understand when the goals themselves have to change.

For years, clients have asked me “What should I do to increase the value of my business?” My answer is always the same. “Exactly the same things that you should be doing to improve your business every day.”

Stephen Covey coined the axiom “Begin with the end in mind.” Yogi Berra said “If you don’t know where you are going, you may wind up somewhere else.”

Your exit plan is the road map to your eventual financial security. It doesn’t have to be a huge undertaking. All plans begin with where you are now. You already have the company, the management team, the customers, and the products or services. You’ve likely thought about how you would like to finish. What’s left is just putting the two together.

The sooner you go through the exercise, the sooner your company will be a component of your exit plan, rather than a distraction from it.

John F. Dini, CExP, CEPA is an exit planning coach and the President of MPN Incorporated in San Antonio Texas. He is the publisher of Awake at 2 o’clock, and has authored three books on business ownership. If you want to see how prepared you are for transition, take the 15-minute Assessment at www.YourExitMap.com 

 

 

 

 

EBITDAC : What is Your Business Worth Now?

by

Several friends have sent me a picture of an EBITDAC coffee mug this week. As it states, EBITDAC stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization and Coronavirus. Will this be the new measure of cash flow for valuing your business?

EBITDACA bleak joke, but one that is on the minds of many business owners, especially Baby Boomers in their late 50s and 60s. Many were postponing their exit planning because business has been so good. As one client told me, “In March we had the best year in the history of my company. It looks like April might be the worst.”

Downturns aren’t new, and recent history has more “Black Swan” downturns than most. Boomer owners have lived through the dot-com crash, 9-11, and the financial/housing bust. Even the Great Recession, however, was when most Boomers were in their mid-40s to early 60s. Most had ample time to recover, and to resume their business-building activities.

This downturn hits 4,000,000 Boomer owners when the youngest is at least 55 years old. The recovery time is uncertain, and regulatory restrictions on their businesses may be reimposed, perhaps more than once.

Factoring the Coronavirus in Valuations

Most Main Street acquisitions (under $3,000,000) rely on financial results over the previous five years for valuation. Those years have generally been good. In the middle market, professional buyers’ due diligence requests often seek results from 2008-2009 as an indicator of a business’s resilience in a contracting economy.

I think we can safely assume that both Main Street and mid-market acquirers will be carefully looking at the sustainability of your business through COVID-19. How much it affects your company’s valuation will depend largely on what type of business you own, and how you reacted to both any shutdown and the period immediately following.

One issue will be how buyers perceive the impact of Paycheck Protection Program loans and their forgiveness. It appears at the moment that the PPP loans will not be considered taxable income when forgiven. There are IRS rules for non-taxable loan forgiveness, but it will likely still appear as additional margin on your books. (The expenses it paid will still be deductible.)

You can be certain that buyers will be backing out the PPP loan forgiveness when valuing your business. They won’t be very interested in paying multiples of a one-time “free money” event.

EBITDAC : Short and Long Term Impact

Some businesses will see an immediate effect on their selling prices. Others may have a lingering change in how buyers look at their worth.

First, buyers will look at the scope of the coronavirus’ impact. Restaurants, caterers, event support, transportation (airlines, rental cars, party buses) and other hospitality related industries will be the worst. Not only are they the most affected, but they face the possibility that they resume with limitations on their business (social distancing in restaurants or limited passengers in vehicles, for example.) Any buyer would have to anticipate another period where they can’t generate substantial, or any, revenue.

If a business like those survives the shutdown, finding a buyer will be challenging. Third-party lenders will shy away from any involvement. Cash flow will remain tight, and credit will be harder to find.

The good news for those businesses is that the virus will end. When it is no longer a threat (presumably either because we find a vaccine, or we build herd immunity after a couple of seasons,) valuations should return to something more normal.

Other businesses will see valuations change over a longer period of time, and for different  reasons. They will be judged either by their ability to recover quickly, or by how their model changes to take advantage of life after the virus.

Regardless of the impact, some owners will use the pandemic as an excuse for years to come. Others will adjust and move forward. (See my description of an owner who was still blaming the Great Recession a decade later here.)

Planning for Your Comeback

Whether your business is essential and working much like before the pandemic, or non-essential but functioning pretty well remotely. this virus is going to change your strategy.

For an obvious example, lets take video conferencing. How are you preparing your sales team for the return to normal? Will they be more efficient? Are they able to cold call? Should their expense accounts be lower? Or are they (and you) just waiting to go back to what they did before?

If you are a manufacturer or a contractor, perhaps your business has been very healthy during this lock-down. What will happen afterwards? Will new competitors push into your market to replace business that they lost? Might some customers fade away, while others discover a newfound need for your offerings?

If you are surviving, how can you thrive? Do you expect landlords with empty space to negotiate cheaper rents? Will some skilled employees be looking for new jobs? Should others become pricier because of increased demand for their skills? Can the automation you implemented for remote work be extended to new efficiencies or new opportunities?

EBITDAC and Post-Coronavirus Exit Planning

If you were anticipating retirement before the pandemic, are you accelerating your plans or putting them on hold for a while longer?

In either case, you’ll need to understand the impact of the virus on your company’s value. EBITDAC 2It may be dramatic and immediate, or it may be only obvious afterwards when your performance is matched against that of your peers.

The definition of a Black Swan is “An unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.” COVID-19 certainly fits the definition. It already has extreme consequences, but many of those are yet to come.

It’s not hard to figure out. Those who plan for a different world will do better than those who are taken by surprise. In either case, the impact of the “C” in EBITDAC will greatly influence any value generated by your transition from your business.

John F. Dini, CExP, CEPA is an exit planning coach and the President of MPN Incorporated in San Antonio Texas. He is the publisher of Awake at 2 o’clock, and has authored three books on business ownership.

Exit Planning in a Crisis

by

Why would you be exit planning in a  crisis? At the height of the economic expansion (a few months ago in late 2019) I was reviewing a company’s financial statements. Their sales were stagnant, and profits were minimal. When I asked the owner why his business hadn’t grown, he responded, “Well, the Great Recession hit our industry pretty hard, you know.”

planning in a crisisTake note that it wasn’t his fault. He was in a hard-hit industry, and the economy dealt him a bad hand. He ignored the thousands of businesses just like his that had grown and prospered in the last ten years.

Once you hunker down behind “It’s not my fault,” it’s easy to stay there too long. First you are glad that you survived. Then you are glad to be making a little bit of money again. Then you wait for the same conditions that made you successful before. If they don’t come, it’s not your fault.

In the meantime, others are coming out of the downturn firing on all cylinders. They used the slow time to get ready; to plan what comes next. When the door of opportunity opened again, they were ready.

Baby Boomers’ Double Whammy

The coronavirus is especially lethal in senior citizens. Many of those are Baby Boomer business owners. They have also suffered a double financial hit. Their retirement account balances are lower, and their businesses, whether closed or just slow, are worth less then they were a few months ago.

Many owners will try to kick the can down the road. “I’ll spend a few years building the business back up, then I’ll sell it.” For some, that was their plan after the recession. Unless you have something new up your sleeve, you may be waiting a long time for the right buyer to come along. In the next economic cycle, you may wait too long. You can only kick that can so far.

If you are a Baby Boomer, the time to be planning your exit is now. That goes double if you are sitting in your house wondering what comes next. Most entrepreneurs started a business because they wanted control over their lives. When there’s an event that takes away that control, your best response is to get it back.

Exit Planning in a Crisis

Your exit plan starts with some basic questions.

  1. Do I know how much I need to retire, with a professional analysis of my living expenses, life expectancy and inflation assumptions?
  2. Do I know how much my company is really worth, and who is most likely to pay me that amount?
  3. If #2 doesn’t meet the needs of #1, do I know how long, and what it would take, to get my business there?
  4. Do I know all the options for monetizing my business, including a sale to employees, another entrepreneur or professional acquirers?

If you are a Baby Boomer, unless you are exit planning in a crisis, you risk a discussion in 2025, or 2028, or 2031 that starts with “Well. the coronavirus hit our industry pretty hard, you know.”

There is a network of advisors in the USA and Canada who specialize in a reasonably priced, 90-day planning process for small business owners, and who use a suite of online tools to help you work through all these questions remotely. They can help get you started right now.

For a listing of these advisors, go here.

John F. Dini, CExP, CEPA is an exit planning coach and the President of MPN Incorporated in San Antonio Texas. He is the publisher of Awake at 2 o’clock, and has authored three books on business ownership.