Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

entrepreneurs

Exit Timing and the Global Economy

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How much will your exit timing be affected by the global economy? Most small businesses serve local markets. Their owners, if they have thought about it, plan to sell to a local individual. If the local market is healthy, why worry about the rest of the world?

A few weeks ago I attended a presentation by  Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors and the youngest member of his cabinet. Dr. Goolsbee was also a college champion debater (he beat Ted Cruz in the national finals) and a member of an improv troupe. That makes him an anomaly in the “dismal science;” a funny economist.

“We are only doomed in the short run.”

Here is a partial list of why he feels the economy will continue on this slow-growth path for some time, and some of the logic (including laugh lines) he used for each.

  • Home prices have returned to their normal annual growth rate (.4%) of the 90 years prior to their run-up. (From the Onion: “Furious Nation Demands New Bubble to Invest In.”)
  • Oil doesn’t have the effect it once did. Fuel efficiency has dropped its impact to less than half the percentage of GDP of 20 years ago. Falling gas prices used to be a boost to the economy. Now that we are a major producer, not so much.
  • The administration is trying to boost consumer spending. The problem is that in the early 2000s Americans were spending more than they made. Now they have returned to their (fairly minimal) savings habits.
  • Europe is circling the event horizon of an economic black hole.
  • Epic job growth (4.5%) is being countered by shrinking productivity in the last few years, resulting in a “stagnant” economy.

For those that expect a stimulus from China’s growth, Goolsbee points out an interesting item.

man-with-head-in-boxThe USA publishes it’s GDP growth statistics one month after the end of a quarter, with adjustments over the next few months. China puts out the number on the last day of each quarter, and never updates it. As Goolsbee says, that causes economists to wonder, “Why do they wait so long?”

Does this affect small business?.

How does this big picture information impact the exit timing of a small business owner?

Exiting is a liquidity event. You are exchanging the equity value of your work for cash. The cost and availability of cash in the financial markets has a lot to do with who is able to buy your business and how much they will pay.

For the last ten years of Quantitative Easing, the markets have been awash with cash. Low deposit rates led many investors to seek higher returns. Private equity groups not only found plenty of investors, but could also leverage their purchases with debt at a relatively low cost.

As the PEGs push towards ever-smaller opportunities, a trickle-down effect has propped up pricing on the lowest (small business) end of the market. Professional investors are flocking to privately held companies. Perhaps they’ve found a new bubble to invest in.

I speak nationally about the coming of the Boomer Bust; the buyer’s market for small business. ( To receive free advance excerpts of my new book on this topic, go here.) According to the demographics, it should be starting already. It appears that the financial markets are hot enough to support prices for those who are exiting now, but demographics are like gravity. You may not like it, but you can’t change it. The flood of exits will come.

Your exit timing is a personal decision, but don’t make the mistake of thinking it’s only a personal decision. The domestic financial markets, which are influenced by the global economy, will have a material effect on your selling price.  Keep one eye on the bigger picture. It could make a material difference in your retirement funding.

Please share Awake at 2 o’clock with another business owner. Thanks for reading!

Business Buyers: The “Buy Now, Pay Later” Generation

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If you are preparing to sell your business, your buyers will likely be members of the “buy now, pay later” generation. Generation X is the first demographic group to be raised in a culture that put little emphasis on savings.

Diner’s Club was introduced as the first “charge card” in 1960. By the end of that decade competition from member cards (American Express and Carte Blanche) and bank-owned revolving finance cards (MasterCard and Visa) began placing millions of cards in consumers’ hands.

credit-cardIn a competitive credit environment, advertising for the revolving charge cards was directed to the pleasures of paying for something after you already enjoyed the use of it. The struggle of saving for a long time before purchasing was portrayed as foolish and unnecessary. In the 1980s and ’90s Baby Boomers on the quest for material success embraced the concept wholeheartedly.

This is the environment that today’s prime business buyers between the ages of 35 and 50 grew up in. Americans reached the height of “buy now, pay later” just after the turn of the century. In the early 2000s, when Generation Xers were between 28 and 45 (the prime consumption age range) Americans spent about 2% more than they earned annually.

That was a great formula for boosting an economy, but a lousy way to amass capital for investment. That credit-fueled boom died a gruesome death in 2008, and many debt-laden Xers haven’t yet recovered.

These are the buyers for your business. Many have grown up believing that personal financial management consists of parsing a paycheck to allow enough for food after their installment payments. The US savings rate has since recovered to a more normal 5%; much of it fueled by Boomers belatedly preparing for retirement.

If you’ve spent the last 30 years or more building a business worth a million dollars, you need to find one of these folks who has put aside at least $300,000 or so to buy it outright (a down payment to qualify for financing plus initial working capital.) There are such buyers, including escapees from corporate life with substantial retirement plans and those who will be inheriting their parents’ savings.

Most buyers, however, don’t have that kind of money. If you want to realize full value for your business, you may want to think about how to accommodate a “buy now, pay later” approach. A buyer who writes a check is more appealing, but good business logic seldom results in complete dependence on a long-shot strategy.

There are four ways to sell a successful business to folks who have no money. The more time you have to implement a plan, the better its chances of success. In order of my preference they are:

  • Best – Sell to Employees. A five to ten year period is usually sufficient to get a “down payment” (25-35%) into employees’ hands via stock incentives. The best scenario is earning the awards by growing the value of the business. In a strong company, the owner can leave with the full proceeds in his or her pocket, and remain in control until retirement.
  • Better – Hire Your Buyer. This is similar to a sale to employees, but you use the equity plan to recruit a more highly qualified individual than you could otherwise attract. It is better in the sense that the buyer may be stronger, but the time up front to make sure he/she is a good fit represents a risk.
  • Good – Finance the Down Payment. For many lenders, including the SBA, stock sold via a subordinated note can qualify as a down payment. It means you walk away with 65-75% of your money, and leave the rest in the business until the first-position lender is comfortable with the stability of their risk.
  • Worst – Finance the Purchase. This is often the scenario for an owner who waits too long to consider the options. Whether the buyer is an employee or a third-party, you sell the company for a promissory note and hope for the best.

You have options, but they disappear one by one as you get closer to your exit. That’s why we encourage planning. Having a plan in place doesn’t require immediate implementation, but it does help when evaluating opportunities.

For more on Boomers and Buyers, you can download my free eBook Beating the Boomer Bust.

Following my own advice, I am leaving on my biannual sabbatical. Awake at 2 o’clock will resume on November 6th. In the meantime, please share it with another business owner. Thank you.

Is Your Business Built on Individual Heroics?

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Great employees are a wonderful gift, but individual heroics aren’t healthy for your business.

Someday, you will start thinking about leaving the business. Perhaps you already do. When you begin planning for your transition, what will your company systems sound like when you describe them to a critical buyer?

“Yes, we have a process for that. It hasn’t been updated, but Martha knows it like the back of her hand.”

“We really don’t have anyone cross-trained on that machine. Bucky likes to work alone, but it’s okay because he hasn’t taken a vacation in three years.”

“We always use Andy on that route. There are lots of traffic snarls, and he’s the only one who seems to be able to finish on schedule.”

You are getting the point. When an employee is especially productive or reliable, it’s easy to become dependent on his or her individual heroics. It’s one fewer function of the business that you have to watch.

heroic workersIt is ironic that the very behaviors that make your life easier appear to be threats in the eyes of a prospective buyer. You know that they could pose a problem, but they haven’t so far. Why fiddle with what’s working?

The answer is because individual heroics discount the value of your business. A buyer worries that key workers might not like his or her management style. As a new owner, he might be immediately approached for pay increases. Worst of all, if one of your heroes’ performance heads south, he may not be able to fix it, or even know what is happening.

For just a moment, look at your best employees as threats. Do you have a contingency plan for each? Can Martha’s process be documented so anyone can do it? Is Bucky just a loner, or is he trying to make himself irreplaceable? Can Andy’s mental map be duplicated by routing software?

And in case you didn’t realize it, “I can do any of those jobs myself. ” is the worst of all possible answers. Those kind of individual heroics will send the buyer towards the exit instead of you.

Dependable high performers are invaluable, but they are frequently protective of their status. Recognize them, but make it plain that that their work needs to be duplicable. (Although, “Of course, not at the level you perform.”)

If you don’t, start looking at them as liabilities rather than assets.

Do you know a business owner who would enjoy Awake at 2 o’clock? Please share!

Good Customers Can Be Bad

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When can good customers be bad? What could be wrong with a customer who buys a lot, pays promptly, and never has a service problem?

They might be buying too much. No matter how strong or comfortable a sales relationship is, it could end. You may be confident that the customer is yours for life, but therein lies the problem. Someone who buys the business doesn’t have the same level of confidence that the customer will be around for a whole new ownership lifetime.

Many mid-market companies rode one horse to success. There were bringing in a few million dollars in revenue when the landed “the big one.” Perhaps they had to scramble to add capacity and ramp up talent, but the seized the opportunity and met the challenge.

As these companies grow, the owners always say the same thing. “I know that it’s bad to have my eggs in one basket. I’m going to find other customers to even things out.”

big and little businessmenBut the good customer keeps buying more. They are twenty times your size, and an increase of 2% for them translates into 40% more for you. Businesses in this situation aren’t necessarily complacent. They are just scrambling to keep up.

This good customer brings many other benefits along with its dollars. They ask for plans and budgets, so you develop capabilities to meet their requirements. They coordinate packaging a shipping, so you learn more about logistics. They ask for detailed reporting, so you upgrade your tracking systems.

Your company’s increased capabilities translates into more business with large customers. You can show your ISO certification or online reporting. You deliver specifications or scope of work statements as professional as those of much larger competitors.

But you never quite catch up. You are like the dog that caught the pickup truck. You don’t have any control, but you can’t let go, either.

There is an obvious risk of good customers having a change in management or strategy, but for the most part the relationship is favorable. The problem arises when it is time to exit your business.

This issue is specific to mid-market companies. In a Main Street sized business, an entrepreneurial buyer (one who is purchasing a job) will often look at the steady income from a large account favorably. If you’ve grown large enough to attract a professional buyer, however, the “Quality of Earnings” audit will bite you.

Quality of earnings analyses are done by larger accounting firms for mid-market buyers, particularly private equity groups. Those firms typically charge between $20,000 and $60,000 for the audit. Not surprisingly, the client wants a return on that investment. That comes by way of discounting profitability associated with the “risky” business.

If the letter of intent is offering five time earnings, the price reduction is of course on a 5:1 ratio to the profits. Not to belabor the math, but if a $40 million company had $4 million in profits, and 40% came from one account, a 35% discount for that account alone would be $2,800,000 off the purchase price.

That’s when good customers can be bad.

Do you know an owner who would enjoy Awake at 2 o’clock? Please share!

The Immortal Business Goes on Forever

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Do you run an immortal business? I hope so. If you answered “no,” or even hesitated to be sure of your response, then you don’t think of your business as immortal.

So when do you plan to shut it down?

Most owners react viscerally to that question. They’ve invested too much time and too much sweat to watch their companies become a memory. They care too much about employees and customers to entertain the idea of  abandoning them.

ForeverFor many, the business is a part of them. Shutting it down would be like having a piece of you die.

Ironically, we play mental gymnastics in our heads every day. We think we have an immortal business. We know we aren’t immortal (on this plane of existence, at least.) Yet, I talk to owners every day who want to pretend that either they will run the business forever, or that it will find some magic way to continue without them.

Anyone who works in exit planning knows the standard answers to the question “What is your exit plan?”

  • “I intend to look for a buyer in about 5 years.”
  • “I still enjoy my business. Talk to me after I get tired of it.”
  • “I’ll sell anything for the right price if someone offers it.”

Each of those answers is a version of “I haven’t thought much about it, and I really don’t want to.” I wouldn’t be much of a consultant (or at least I’d be an impoverished one), if I didn’t have some counter arguments ready.

  • “I intend to look for a buyer in about 5 years.” That’s fine, but five years is about the minimum time you should allow for any serious tax planning. If you are going to take a subchapter S election, create a new entity, or change your  depreciation methods, it will take some time to have the desired effect. Of course, the Internal Revenue Service already has a plan for how they would handle the proceeds, so you could just go with theirs.
  • “I still enjoy my business. Talk to me after I get tired of it.” That is clearly too late. Whether you are selling to employees or family, or marketing the company to third parties,  the business needs to be running well to survive a transition to new ownership. Once you start losing interest, it gets much tougher.
  • “I’ll sell anything for the right price if someone offers it.” Sure but what is the “right” price? Is it based on industry metrics? Is it some multiple that a guy from a vendor told you a competitor sold for? Is it a number you need for retirement that has little to do with market value? If you received an offer tomorrow, how would you know if it was the best offer you might ever see?

The most important thing to remember is this: Planning is only planning. Implementation is a different activity in the management cycle. Just because you have a plan doesn’t mean you will use it today or tomorrow, but it will still be there when you choose to put it into action.

If you own an immortal business, you have an obligation to the folks who depend on it. Part of that is to know how they will be able to continue depending on it when you aren’t there.

If you know a business owner who would benefit from “Awake at 2 o’clock,” please share!

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