Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

recession

Prepared for 2023 – Is This the Year to Exit?

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What does being prepared for 2023 mean for business owners who are approaching, at, or already beyond normal retirement age?

It’s become fashionable to pontificate about the “inevitable” recession in the coming year. There is an argument for not talking ourselves into making it happen. Unfortunately, there are indisputable reasons why it is going to occur regardless of whether we discuss it or not.

Inflationary stimulus (including $6 trillion of ”quantitative easing”) in the US, combined with over-dependency on Russian gas supply in Europe and falling industrial production from COVID lockdowns in China have created the proverbial slow-motion car wreck for the world economy. All three will come home to roost for the world’s major markets in 2023.

What will happen?
Just as the result of these failures in leadership is eminently predictable, the impact on businesses in transition is equally plain.

Company valuations will decline. Inflated multiples fueled by low interest rates for leveraged buyouts have already disappeared. If you are planning your retirement around the value of a year or two ago, it is time to reassess.

A corollary to declining multiples will be a lack of financing. Market conditions directly impact the availability of acquisition funding. Already, Wall Street has seen a 90% drop in IPOs.

Running a business will get tougher for some time. The ”Great Resignation” is actually only half driven by increasing worker mobility. The other half is from Boomer retirements. As employees seek a counterbalance to inflation, staffing will be an even bigger issue than sales volume.

Many owners will look back at 2022 as the year they finally decided that enough is enough. Owners overcame the dot-com crash, 9/11, and the Great Recession. Now a combination of resurgent inflation, supply chain headaches and a lack of qualified workers will tip the scales toward developing an exit strategy.

What can an owner do?
Lower valuations call for creativity in structuring transactions. Employee buyouts and ESOPs that maximize the benefits of sustainable cash flow can provide owners with income that wouldn’t be available from a hard-negotiated third-party sale.

Seller financing or installment sales may offer flexibility that brings more qualified buyers to the table. Stretching out proceeds as recurring income can help a seller wind up with more in his or her pocket, albeit over a longer time period.

Retaining your top talent will be more important than ever, especially if wages continue to rise. Structured equity sales can act as both an incentive and “golden handcuffs” to ensure that a company’s best employees, and consequently its enterprise value, remain intact through dips in revenue.

Prepared for 2023
Many owners were lulled into a false sense of security by frequent calls from business brokers and private equity groups. They may have postponed their planning in the belief that a transition could always happen whenever they felt the urge.

When the phone stops ringing, they will need cooler heads to help them understand that there are options besides a fire sale. Equity can be retained, and retirement can be secured. Work with an advisor who understands the alternatives to “List it and they will come.”

Companies will still be sold in the coming year. Prices may be lower, but are only falling from the unrealistic high driven by cheap money. It may feel like you are getting less than market value, but multiples have only receded to their historical mean.

If this is the year for you to begin your “second act,” it’s still the same approach as it was before. Being prepared for 2023 is a matter of researching the market, planning the process, and hiring qualified professionals.

John F. Dini develops transition and succession strategies that allow business owners to exit their companies on their own schedule, with the proceeds they seek and complete control over the process. He takes a coaching approach to client engagements, focusing on helping owners of companies with $1M to $250M in revenue achieve both their desired lifestyles and legacies.

Exit Planning in a Crisis

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Why would you be exit planning in a  crisis? At the height of the economic expansion (a few months ago in late 2019) I was reviewing a company’s financial statements. Their sales were stagnant, and profits were minimal. When I asked the owner why his business hadn’t grown, he responded, “Well, the Great Recession hit our industry pretty hard, you know.”

planning in a crisisTake note that it wasn’t his fault. He was in a hard-hit industry, and the economy dealt him a bad hand. He ignored the thousands of businesses just like his that had grown and prospered in the last ten years.

Once you hunker down behind “It’s not my fault,” it’s easy to stay there too long. First you are glad that you survived. Then you are glad to be making a little bit of money again. Then you wait for the same conditions that made you successful before. If they don’t come, it’s not your fault.

In the meantime, others are coming out of the downturn firing on all cylinders. They used the slow time to get ready; to plan what comes next. When the door of opportunity opened again, they were ready.

Baby Boomers’ Double Whammy

The coronavirus is especially lethal in senior citizens. Many of those are Baby Boomer business owners. They have also suffered a double financial hit. Their retirement account balances are lower, and their businesses, whether closed or just slow, are worth less then they were a few months ago.

Many owners will try to kick the can down the road. “I’ll spend a few years building the business back up, then I’ll sell it.” For some, that was their plan after the recession. Unless you have something new up your sleeve, you may be waiting a long time for the right buyer to come along. In the next economic cycle, you may wait too long. You can only kick that can so far.

If you are a Baby Boomer, the time to be planning your exit is now. That goes double if you are sitting in your house wondering what comes next. Most entrepreneurs started a business because they wanted control over their lives. When there’s an event that takes away that control, your best response is to get it back.

Exit Planning in a Crisis

Your exit plan starts with some basic questions.

  1. Do I know how much I need to retire, with a professional analysis of my living expenses, life expectancy and inflation assumptions?
  2. Do I know how much my company is really worth, and who is most likely to pay me that amount?
  3. If #2 doesn’t meet the needs of #1, do I know how long, and what it would take, to get my business there?
  4. Do I know all the options for monetizing my business, including a sale to employees, another entrepreneur or professional acquirers?

If you are a Baby Boomer, unless you are exit planning in a crisis, you risk a discussion in 2025, or 2028, or 2031 that starts with “Well. the coronavirus hit our industry pretty hard, you know.”

There is a network of advisors in the USA and Canada who specialize in a reasonably priced, 90-day planning process for small business owners, and who use a suite of online tools to help you work through all these questions remotely. They can help get you started right now.

For a listing of these advisors, go here.

John F. Dini, CExP, CEPA is an exit planning coach and the President of MPN Incorporated in San Antonio Texas. He is the publisher of Awake at 2 o’clock, and has authored three books on business ownership.

Exit Planning in a New Political Environment

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What does a new political environment mean for business owners who are planning to transition their businesses? Should you accelerate your plans, or slow them down?

As I’ve said many times in this space and elsewhere, the biggest single factor in successfully selling a company is the current condition of the financial markets. Since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has poured new cash into the system at very low interest rates. This “cheap money” has trickled down to fund a wave of leveraged buyouts by financial professionals seeking a better return than that from more traditional investments.

This wave of cash enables some 7,000 private equity groups (PEGs) to seek targets in almost every industry. Those targets, however, are typically among the 20,000 or so privately held companies with over $1,000,000 in pre-tax profit.

That leaves out some 9 million employers on Main Street (those that sell for less than $3,000,000.) Of those, about 5 million are owned by Baby Boomers who are, or should be, thinking about life after business ownership.

Most of the owners I talk to are at a loss to predict the climate of the next few years. They hope that a pro-business administration will reduce bureaucracy and pull back some of the regulatory burden on business owners. On the other hand, they are concerned that trade wars, rescission of treaties or diplomatic snafus will drive the US, or the world, into another economic trough.

A very few claim that they know exactly what President Trump and the Republican Congress will do. In the words of Prussian General Helmut von Moltke, “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” People may think they know what is coming, but it would be foolish to bet the ranch on any single outcome.

What does this mean for exiting business owners? At the risk of sounding too pat, it means exit planning is more important now than ever before.

Why Start Exit Planning Now?

Here are some reasons why an exit plan is valuable in uncertain times:

  • If your planned exit is more than five years from now, the landscape will likely change again before you transition. A plan will give you the tools to track key components of a successful exit, and improve your ability to respond to changes.
  • If your intention is to preserve the legacy of your company by selling it to employees or family members, starting the transfer now can put you in a position to accelerate or delay the final transfer according to current conditions.
  • If the stated intention of the new administration (a return to 4% GDP growth) is successful, a plan to maximize your value to a third-party buyer will leverage higher pricing multiples.
  • If the economy winds up in the tank, a plan is only a plan. It can always be put on hold until conditions improve.

An exit plan is, by definition, a strategic plan with the addition of a completion date. Some owners fear that by stating a deadline, they are committing to it regardless of circumstances. Of course that isn’t true.

Planning your exit and actually exiting are two different activities. It only makes sense that the political environment should be one of the factors that affect your final decision.

Would you like free excerpt from my new book Your Exit Map: Navigating the Boomer Bust?

Just register here. We’ll send you short pieces every few weeks until its publication in the Spring.

Boomers and the Lost Generation

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Those who read this column regularly are well aware of the huge shifts underway as a result of the Baby Boomers’ coming exodus from the workplace. Those who aren’t familiar with the issue are invited to download my free, 45-page eBook Beating the Boomer Bust.

Almost four years ago I mused about the chances of Generation X, smaller in numbers and less accustomed to competition than the generations immediately before (Boomers) or following (Millennials) becoming another Lost Generation, much like that of the F. Scott Fitzgerald era.

Now, I’m seeing and hearing more evidence that such may be the case. A friend who works closely with the large corporations in the oil and gas industry noted a different trend in the layoffs that are accompanying the fall in prices. The Great Recession, like previous downturns, saw buyouts of many workers who were approaching retirement. This time around, companies are getting leaner by cutting less experienced workers, and keeping their more experienced core regardless of age.

older workerI see a similar trend in smaller businesses as well. Owners who traditionally filled lower and mid-level positions by seeking younger workers are now much more inclined to hire people in their 50s and 60s. What is causing this shift?

First, there is a new expectation about employee retention. It’s well documented that workers from GenX and the Millennials are far less likely to take a job for life. Regardless of how well they are treated, younger workers take a position with the expectation that they will be moving on when they find a better opportunity, or simply when the job interferes with their chosen lifestyle.

The majority of small businesses are still owned by Boomers, and they are often more comfortable with employees who share their experience and attitudes. If a young employee has an employment life expectancy of, say, five years, why not have that position filled by someone who understands that paid time off is something that has to be accrued before it’s taken?

If you have to accomplish more work with fewer people, employers naturally want people who will stretch to get things done. Most Boomer workers accept the need to work late on occasion, and are accustomed to planning personal activities around the job. Younger people often see that as being too docile, or foolishly loyal when “It’s only a job.” Employers, on the other hand, cherish such dedication.

Boomers are generally healthier than preceding generations. They haven’t been great savers, and most plan to work longer than their predecessors. As the pace of change accelerates in almost every industry, a worker who needs little ramping up and can be expected to produce for another ten years looks better and better, regardless of any gray hair.

Not all Boomers have the skills necessary to function in today’s workplace. If you are looking for technical abilities, however, someone in their 30s (a Millennial) is likely to be faster and more savvy than someone in their mid-40s. That’s why Generation X is getting squeezed in the middle.

Of course, as another friend says, “A Millennial will figure out how to use technology to accomplish in a single day what would take a Boomer three. Of course, then he wants the other two days off.”