Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

small business advice

The Gen X Business Buyer

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Generation X’ers aren’t mini-Boomers. Raised in a rapidly growing economy by parents that approached child rearing as a competitive activity, they saw more, did more, and were given more than their parents could have dreamed of.

I took my first commercial airline ride when I was 25 years old (and before my mother’s first flight). My two sons had each boarded planes over 50 times before they were in high school.

I was not an athlete, and have no hardware to display testifying to any athletic prowess. My youngest son made varsity in one sport, for one year. Yet he has a bookcase full of trophies.

I received a couple of piano lessons from a neighbor who played. My children had paid instructors for martial arts, gymnastics, baseball, piano, viola, singing, and math. They are far from the most-coached kids I know.

The challenge of selling a business to a small and disinclined group of prospective buyers starts with their lack of numbers, but it is just as much about how they were raised by their Boomer parents. Generation X has different values and many more choices.

Values

The numbers are just the most obvious (and the most inevitable) factor impacting Generation X as buyers. The second factor is values. Every Boomer owner I know, and there are hundreds, has complained about the expectations and the lack of a decent work ethic among Generation X. This isn’t caused by a special laziness gene. It is a matter of values.

Boomer “super parents,” driven by their competitive  approach to everything, raised children who expected to be accepted for who they are, and to have things done for them. Boomers created the children’s ball team where everyone got a trophy just for participating, regardless of the team’s success. X’ers watched their parents struggle with a breakneck pace and the concept of work-life balance and, like every generation of offspring, saw their parents’ approach to life as stupid.

So Generation X, by and large, doesn’t equate material comfort directly with work. Their “balance” is oriented towards separating work and life. Unlike most Boomers, who live to work, the X generation only works to live. Work isn’t their identity, it is merely the thing that permits them to finance what they really want to be.

For Boomer entrepreneurs, who accept a 50 or 60 hour work week as simply part of the cost of business ownership, that isn’t good news. The next generation of buyers doesn’t agree with you, and isn’t interested in subordinating their lives to the quest for success.

Choices

I know five local CPA firms that have sold to regional or national competitors in the last 3 years or so. Each had the same problem. They had built a model where the retirement of the Boomer founders was dependent on the profits to be generated by the next generation of partners. Unfortunately, that generation wasn’t interested in assuming the required work load. In several of the cases, a younger partner was invited to a meeting, where the senior partners announced that he or she had been selected as the next leader of the firm. To their shock, the annointee turned them down flat.

Corporate America is aware of the coming shortage of educated, hard-working, middle-aged executives. They are recruiting them with far greater benefits and perquisites than a small business can afford.

Since the 1970’s, a flood of regulation and increasing liability connected to business ownership makes the entrepreneurial proposition riskier and more tedious. The Boomers have only themselves to thank for that.

The retirement of the Boomers is placing a crushing burden on Medicare, Social Security and pension funds. The likelihood of greater taxation, and lower benefits for those who follow, detracts from the attraction of working hard to make a lot more money.

Finally, technology has vastly expanded Gen X’s choices. Flex time, telecommuting, job sharing, family leave and home-based businesses make the traditional model of sitting in a business all day look far less appealing.

The bleakest future is for a small business that has few factors, other than the owner’s personal reputation, to differentiate it from its competitors. It depends on the ongoing efforts of its owner to produce revenue. It has a number of employees who are only trained on the job, or who possess few distinctive skills that make them an integrated part of the business. It has no incentives that lock the best performers into long term relationships.  It lacks middle management, or anyone who can run the business indefinitely without the owner around to make decisions.

If that describes the business you own, it is time to start making changes. The generation that is reaching business-buying age has more choices for earning a living, and many more choices that better fit their values.

This series is focused on Boomers who are preparing to exit their businesses. For owners who precede the Boomers (currently in their 70’s), there is still a market of younger Boomers (in their late 40s and early 50s) to sell to. We are describing a problem that is only going to accelerate in the next 5 years. It is unavoidable, and the numbers are irrefutable.

There is some good news. You can do something about it. Most small business owners will remain oblivious to the realities of the market until they try to sell, and even then probably won’t understand the reasons why they can’t.

Like the hiker running from the bear, you don’t have to be faster than the bear. You just need to be faster than the other hiker. Simply reading this puts you ahead of the pack. We next turn our attention to what it will take to successfully exit your business in the toughest selling market in history.

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(This is the seventh installment in a series about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Previous installments are The Approaching Tidal Wave, The Pig in the Python,  The Brass Ring, Work-Life Balance, Outsourcing America and The X Factor.)

 

The X Factor

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There are two sides to every business transaction, a buyer and a seller. For most of the last 50 years in America, the Baby Boomers have been the biggest buyers in history. They bought homes and cars to spur the economy after World War II. They bought franchises to provide services for each other as busy parents. They bought SUVs and McMansions when they became the affluent middle-aged.

Squeezed out of a corporate America that didn’t have room for them, and couldn’t offer the clear path to success they had been raised to expect, the Boomers formed new businesses in numbers unmatched before or since.

In 1975, when the first Boomers turned 30 years old, there were 300,000 new business formations in the United States. By 1986 when those same Boomers were 41, we saw almost 750,000 new businesses open, a number 250% larger than just 10 years before.

Just as importantly, by 1990 the rate of new business openings had dropped back to 600,000. It has remained at roughly 600,000 ever since, despite that fact that the national population has grown by almost 65,000,000 people since then (from 249 million in 1990 to over 313 million in 2010).

Boomers didn’t just open a lot of businesses because of their sheer numbers, although that was part of it. They opened them because the had been raised with greater expectations than previous generations. Their values focused on material evidence of success, combined with a powerful attachment to a workplace persona. Subsequent generations have not embraced business ownership like the Boomers did.

But in 2010 the first Boomers began turning 65, and a generation that has driven the American economy by buying feverishly is about to turn into sellers. It won’t happen all at once. Improved health care, technology, their value on work roles and a fairly dismal record of saving will all combine to keep the Boomers in the workplace longer than their parents. But sell they will, and soon they will be bringing a massive wave of small businesses to market.

The buyers are Generation X, the youngest of whom were just turning 25 years old as the first Boomers hit 65. Generation X as a term has been used in various ways as early as 1964 to describe disaffected adolescents, to describe all 20-somethings, and to specifically cover those born between 1960 and 1965 (note that several of these uses are actually about Boomers). My preferred definition is the tenth generation since 1776 born as citizens of the United States (Roman Numeral X).

This generation, beginning with the babies of 1965 and continuing through 1984, is a big problem for Boomers who are preparing to sell their businesses. The issues are three-fold: numbers, values and choices.

We will first discuss the numbers, since they are the most powerful argument for what is to come. We cannot change the birthrates of 40, 50 or 60 years ago. All the people who were born between 1945 and 1964 are born. There will not be any less of them. Those born between 1965 and 1984 are the same, there won’t be any more.

This is a deep dive into the statistics. It may be a bit tedious for some folks, but it is critical to understanding the scope and impact of the problem.

Numbers

Even on the face of it, the numbers aren’t favorable for the Boomers who will be selling their companies. The X’ers number about 69 million in total, around 9 million, or 11%, fewer than the Boomers. That may not sound like a lot, but think about how profitable your business would be with 11% fewer sales.

Eleven percent of any market is a chunk. If your market is the entire United States of today, taking 11% off the table would mean removing Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wyoming and Virginia. Those aren’t minor markets. (Well, maybe Wyoming, but I needed to make the numbers come out.)

Most markets aren’t the entire country, however. Starting with the Boomers as children, Marketers have increasingly segmented and targeted age groups for their products. Shrinking a target market by 11% means fewer prospects to sell to, and small businesses for sale will simply have fewer prospective buyers.

The impact is even more dramatic when the curve of births is examined. Boomer births peaked in 1957 at 4.3 million. Gen X births declined steadily from 1965 through 1973, when only 3.1 million, babies, 28% fewer than in the peak Boomer year, were born. For the period from 1953 through 1957 almost 21 million Boomers were born. For 1973 through 1977 there were just under 16 million new X’ers.

That means from 2018 through 2022, when those babies hit 65 years old, almost 5 million fewer people (23%) will be turning 45, and entering their prime business buying years. What would your market look like with 23% fewer buyers? What happens to pricing and competition when you start with 3 buyers for every 4 sellers?

We are rapidly approaching the worst imbalance between small business sellers and buyers in history, and it will continue for the next 20 years.

If the problem was limited to the numbers alone it would still be dramatic. In addition, there are other factors that make the numerical shortfall even more pronounced. The profile of the buyers, the values and the choices of Generation X,  will exponentially increase the gap between Boomer sellers and the people to whom they expect to sell their businesses.

(This is the sixth installment in a series about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Previous installments are The Approaching Tidal Wave, The Pig in the Python,  The Brass Ring, Work-Life Balance and Outsourcing America.)

Outsourcing America

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The Baby Boomers created seismic shifts in American culture and economics throughout their lives. Their mere numbers caused much of the shift, but their competitiveness and commonality enhanced the impact at every stage of their lives.

In the mid 1960’s, as we’ve seen, the Boomers delayed having children. Unlike every previous generation, they chose to work longer and accumulate, or at least spend more, wealth. The “trough” of birthrates was lowest between about 1968 and 1978. By the early 1980’s, the Boomers began their delayed child-bearing in earnest.

As the parents of Generation X, the Boomers didn’t suddenly abandon their defining characteristics. They became competitive parents. Parenting became a performing art. Peer pressure made competitive parenting into a status symbol. They set out on the quest for ultimate child development.

The Boomers had two ways possible to approach perfect parenting. The first way requires a huge commitment of time. Mom stays home, and Dad is home as much as humanly possible. You pour your time into giving attention to your children. You engage them in all household activities, such as gardening and cooking. You do their homework with them, and teach them how to play sports. You practice with them, and dedicate evenings and weekends to their development.

That road to perfect parenting doesn’t leave much space for dual career households seeking the upper reaches of the socio-economic ladder. You can’t work lots of overtime, bring work home, play golf with customers on weekends, or go out for career-enhancing social events if you are spending every spare minute delivering instruction and experience to your children.

As a smart, educated, and efficient parent the solution is obvious. You outsource all that stuff. Outsourcing traditional parenting chores served a dual purpose. It saved time for Boomer parents who were focused on career-building, and it created business opportunities for those who couldn’t, or wouldn’t, compete in  climbing the traditional career ladder of corporate America.

Business model franchising was first established in the 1940’s, beginning with businesses that offered prepared food to replace home-made meals. From 1975 (when the first Boomers turned 30) through 1986 the number of franchises sold in the US skyrocketed from about 2,000 to 22,000 annually. That number leveled off in 1986, and remains roughly constant through today.

Competitive Boomer parents had an answer to their time constraints; one that still suited the drive to give their children the best of everything. Little League became merely the first step in sports development. If you were serious about supporting your child’s sporting prowess, you paid for year-round leagues, traveling teams and private coaches. The same logic justified martial arts classes, music teachers and tutors for school subjects.

At home, busy parent could “buy” time by outsourcing not only cooking, but house cleaning, laundry, yard maintenance and repairs. “Do it yourself” faded as a point of pride, replaced by hiring an expert to do it better.

The explosion of franchising was fueled by the rising tide of Boomers serving Boomers. They provided both the service providers and the consumers who paid for those services. By the 1980’s, the portion of the US Gross Domestic Product from services had risen to over 70%.

For franchisors and their franchisees, the model fit Boomer ambitions beautifully. Once established, franchisors had a ready market of hard-working ownership prospects. Many, and probably most franchises are driven by the personal efforts of the franchisee. He or she often opens the business, closes it, and delivers or supervises the delivery of most of the services.

Franchisors are relieved of the expensive, time-consuming roles of motivating employees and managing the day-to-day operations. They don’t need to set sales goals or create growth incentives; Boomer owners do that all by themselves.

What happens when franchisors run out of middle-aged Boomers to buy and drive their growth? The youngest Boomers are now entering their 50s, and are no longer prime candidates for start-up ventures. The oldest Boomers are rapidly (at a rate of 1,000 every 8 minutes) moving out of their peak outsourcing consumption years.

On August 6, 2011, Standard and Poors Sovereign Credit Rating Unit downgraded America’s debt rating from AAA to AA+. The next day the head of the unit, David T. Beers, was asked in an interview to estimate when the top rating might be restored. He replied, “What Americans have to understand is that this country reached its demographic peak ten years ago.”

“Awake at 2 o’clock is a weekly column for business owners. This series has been examining the impact of the Baby Boom generation on cultural shifts and the economy of the United States, in order to build the base for the rest of the discussion to come.

What will happen to the millions of Boomer-owned businesses when it is time to hand them off to a generation that is smaller, has very different values, and has far more options? Our next column will begin examining those buyers- Generation X.

(This is the fifth installment in a series about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Previous installments are The Approaching Tidal Wave, The Pig in the Python,  The Brass Ring and Work-Life Balance.)

 

Work-Life Balance

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The term “Work-Life Balance” is widely cited as first occurring in the United State in 1986 in a research paper. I can’t identify the specific source of this much-referred usage, but it is telling that it would pop up when the last Baby Boomers had just turned 21. They were all in the labor pool, and their competitiveness (see The Brass Ring) was rapidly becoming the norm in the workplace.

In the period beginning in 1912, the Federal Government began passing legislation to limit the number of hours that could be demanded of a worker. With the passage of the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, the concept of a 40 hour work week was enshrined in national labor regulations.

In the decades following WWII, the average work week hovered between 39 and 41 hours. As the Boomers assumed their dominant role in the workforce, however, it began to climb for the first time since prior to the Great Depression, and by the mid 1990’s was in excess of 47 hours a week for the entire working population. The race was on!

Just as it doesn’t take an economist to understand why a having lot more people creates additional demand, so it doesn’t take a PhD to explain why working more produces more. Combine a generation that was 50% larger than its predecessor, and have that much larger labor force work 20% more, and you have a rising tide that has carried the US economy through today.

But even those factors don’t fully explain the force that was the Baby Boomers. Driven to succeed, they sought new ways to increase household income. One of those became obvious. As the university system opened up to women, educated and ambitious Boomer moms were pressed into service as wage earners. The two income family became the new norm.

Between 1970 and 1980, while the US population increased by 11%, the workforce grew by an astonishing 29%!

“Work-Life Balance” wasn’t a term before the Boomers, simply because it wasn’t a widespread issue before the Boomers. The returning WWII GIs didn’t wrestle with the dividing line between work and life. There was work, and then there was life. You left the office at 5:00 (or the plant when your shift ended) and came home to your life. In the idealized middle-class family, Mom had spent the day caring for the children and preparing dinner. Weekends were for outings and backyard time with friends (in your new subdivision home).

Boomers abandoned that model by the millions. Although the wife still assumed the bulk of the duties of child care and food preparation (and does today), she had to fit it in around a work week spent supporting a lifestyle of success.

In 1984 (when the Boomers ranged from 20-40 years old- prime child-bearing time) Chrysler Corporation introduced one of the greatest product successes of the decade; the minivan. Built on a car chassis (so women could drive it more easily) it had the first feature that acknowledged automobiles as something other than transportation- cupholders!

Now families had transport that accommodated their need to feed children in between school and activities and home. McDonald’s installed its first drive-through window in 1975 (the oldest Boomers had just turned 30). Mom became an efficiency machine, going from work to school to soccer without ever getting out from behind the steering wheel.

In a foreshadowing of what happened to many products that depended on Boomers to support them, over 1 million minivans were sold in America in 2005, when the youngest Boomers turned 40. By 2008, just three years later, minivan sales had dropped by 80%, to just over 200,000. The Boomers were now in their 40s and 50s. More affluent, they could afford to move up en masse to SUVs. (Everyone had cupholders by then.)

The Boomers had reshaped society, first as children, again as working adults, and now as parents. This reshaping went much further that simple productivity. In their quest for identity through work and material success, the Boomers were about to engineer the biggest change of all.

Since 1776, with a small drop during the Great Depression, every generation of Americans has begun promptly producing a new, larger generation upon turning 20 years old. The Boomers broke that mold. Their need for higher education and early focus on potential careers delayed their marriages and child-bearing by years. Once they began having children, the challenges of juggling job and family, along with medical advancements in birth control, led them to have fewer children than their parents did.

As a result, the tenth generation born as United States citizens (known by their Roman numeral as “Generation X”)  was smaller than the Boomers that preceded them by almost 10,000,000 lives.

By now, you have had enough indoctrination regarding the economic effects of rising and falling populations to understand the implications of a shrinking work force. It is no coincidence that the suffering economies of Europe, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, have had the four lowest birth rates in Europe for the last 30 years. Fewer workers are simply bad for an economy.

But Generation X will impact retiring Boomers through more than just numbers. They grew up in minivans, watching their parents work longer and harder in pursuit of success. They aren’t impressed by the results, and are returning to values that separate work from life.

That may be good for them, but it isn’t promising for Boomer business owners on many different levels.

(This is the fourth installment in a series about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Previous installments are The Approaching Tidal Wave, The Pig in the Python and The Brass Ring.)

 

The Approaching Tidal Wave

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A year ago this month, I began speaking to business owner groups about “Beating the Boomer Bust.” Since then I’ve delivered the presentation over 20 times, both locally and to national groups, and the requests for it are increasing.

It’s the product of a year of research, and of fifteen years helping business owners prepare to leave their companies. I’m convinced, actually I am certain, that small business owners in America are ignoring a tidal wave of change that, just like a real tidal wave, will leave a few small businesses untouched while wiping many others from the face of the planet.

Am I being dramatic? Absolutely. Am I being overly dramatic? Not in the slightest. Peter Drucker once said “I don’t predict the future. I look at what has happened already and point out the inevitable result.”

Two years ago I set out to learn whether the birth rate curve of the Baby Boomers was duplicated in other areas of American society and the American economy. Not only did that prove to be the case, but the correlation is shockingly perfect. When the Baby Boomers reach  an age where specific life activities would normally be expected, the incidence of those activities escalates overnight (with one notable exception that I’ll discuss in future weeks), in volumes not seen before or since, and exactly corresponding to the birth rate increase that started in 1945.

Describing it as a tidal wave isn’t at all metaphorical. Like a tsunami, it is well documented. The causes are known. It is traveling at a defined rate of speed. Its arrival is both inevitable and on a schedule. It will get higher and more dramatic as it approaches the coastline (Boomer retirement ages), and those who ignore the warning signs will be very, very sorry.

The impact will be universal, but I am going to focus on the implications for small business owners. Those who are exiting now will still have some options between selling to a late-stage Boomer and selling to Generation X, and should know what the differences are. Those Boomer owners who are planning to move on (perhaps not retire – another topic we’ll address) in the next 10 to 15 years need to understand the changed market that they will be selling in. Late-stage Boomers should be building a very different business than the ones they started or purchased. Post Boomer entrepreneurs need to assess the many opportunities that these changes will create.

Let’s start with defining the Baby Boom. Most of us know what it is, but it’s more than just a mere demographic description. Since this entire series will be about the inevitability of numbers, we should put the boomers in an economic context. Their numbers helped determine the personality traits of a generation, and of the generations that followed.

An important fact to understand in our discussion is that the Baby Boom is an American phenomenon. We were late to join World War II, and suffered far fewer causalities as a percentage of our young male population. In addition, the US was never a battlefield in the war, so our returning armies were discharged into a healthy infrastructure, with an industrial base fully geared up for maximum production.

In 1945, as the GIs began returning from WWII, the US population was 140 million, and the birthrate was about 2.8 million. That number of births had been roughly consistent, between 2.5 and 2.9 million, from 1900 onward, with one noticeable dip in the middle of the Great Depression.

In 1946, the birthrate exploded to 3.47 million, a 24% increase in one year! New births broke the 3.5 million mark for the first time in 1947, 4 million in 1954, and peaked at 4.3 million in 1957. They didn’t fall back below 3.5 million a year until 1971, and then didn’t reach the 4 million mark again until 1989.

In 20 years (1945-1964) the United States had added 78 million new, natural-born citizens to the population. By 1965 the US population had grown to about 195,000,000. which meant that two out of every five people in America was under 20 years old!

This was the uniquely American phenomenon that was to influence everything for the next sixty years. The impact of the Baby Boom has changed social and cultural mores, the job market, business structures and economics. As they exit the workplace, the Boomers will have one more giant shift to their credit, and it will change the face of small business in America.

If you are a Boomer business owner, know a Boomer business owner, or provide services to a Boomer business owner, I encourage you to share this first chapter of the series. By the time we reach the end, I can promise you that you will view the next ten years in a whole new light.