Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

Building Value

Quality of Earnings Part 3: Cash Flow

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In the past few weeks we’ve discussed how quality of earnings audits look at your income and expenses, and their impact on company value.  Since Revenue less Expenses equals Profit (P=R-E), you could be forgiven for thinking that we have picked apart your earnings as much as possible.

Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Merely dissecting your customers, lines of business, contracts, one-time expenses and unrecognized liabilities isn’t enough. Quality of earnings also examines how your cash flows.

Accounts Receivable

Just selling at a decent margin isn’t enough. That margin suffers from invisible erosion if your customers don’t pay on time. I’ve heard plenty of owners say ” They are our biggest customer, even if they don’t pay for 90 days.”

Buyers may look at that as “financing” the customers average balance. Even if you aren’t borrowing for working capital, that is money that might be more efficiently used elsewhere.

The math of earnings quality assigns an interest rate to those funds. If the customer takes three months to pay, and maintains an average over-30 balance of $500,000, a 6% cost-of-funds calculation could lop $30,000 from your earnings. If the offered multiple is 5x, that’s $150,000 deducted from your sale price.

Working Capital Needs

Another oft-heard claim by sellers is “This company could grow a lot, if only we had the capital.” Don’t be surprised if an experienced buyer tries to use that to lower their price.

I don’t think this one is necessarily fair. If your valuation is based on past performance, then what the buyer plans for the future is his problem. It has little to do with the numbers underlying your value. None the less, some buyers will put it on the table as a negotiating tactic.

On the other hand, if your selling price includes projections of future performance, or there are obvious issues of deferred maintenance (all your computers still run on Windows 7 for example), then expect an attempt to deduct the additional cash needed right after closing from the purchase price.

Run Rates

Most of us anticipate that a fast growing company will demand a higher multiple than a slow-growing or flat business. That doesn’t mean a buyer won’t try to “double dip” by offering a lower multiple and discounting for performance in the post-LOI due diligence period. Angry sellers will exclaim “But you knew my numbers before you made the offer!” True, but if an outside auditor emphasizes a lack of revenue or profit growth in his report, expect it to be on the table again.

It will absolutely be an issue if your growth rate falters during due diligence. It’s hard to go through the machinations of a transaction and pay attention to driving the company at the same time. Just be aware that taking your foot off the gas will be noticed, and accounted for.

The bigger issue is when growth on your top line isn’t equaled or exceeded on your bottom line. It may indicate that you are “buying business” with discounting. Failure to increase margins with additional volume may point to a lack of scalability. Either will become a part of the discussion on final price.

Quality of Earnings

In my three columns in this topic, we’ve examined eight major areas where a buyer can claim your earnings are worth less than they seem to be. I’m not an auditor. I’m pretty sure they could point to a few more.

The biggest single point I’d like to drive home is this. Most business owners consider the Letter of Intent to be the end of a negotiating road. When it comes to savvy buyers, it may just be the beginning.

 

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Quality of Earnings Part 2: Hidden Expenses

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In my last post we discussed quality of earnings audits from a revenue perspective. Customer concentration, marginal lines of business and contracts are the three most common revenue traps. If you are comfortable with your company’s strength and stability as regards to revenue, it’s time to look at your expenses.

There are two expense categories that trip up owners in due diligence, one-time (out of the ordinary) expenses, and unrecognized liabilities.

One Time Expenses

A few years ago I worked with a client who owned a wholesale distribution business. He presented his financial statements to me to determine the practicality of obtaining third-party financing for an employee buyout. His recast statements showed over 10% free cash flow after owner compensation. That’s a respectable number in most wholesale distribution business.

As I examined the prior year’s financial records, I noticed that the adding back of a one-time expense accounted for almost 75% of the cash flow. I inquired, and found that the expense was for a conversion of the company’s enterprise information system, including consultants’ and employee costs for implementation.

Digging further, I found that 50% of the prior year’s adjusted cash flow number resulted from reversing a one-time expense associated with converting the delivery fleet from owned to leased vehicles. The year before that, half of the cash flow came from a one-time manufacturer’s buyout of some inventory, which was replaced under generous payment terms.

There are legitimate reasons to account for one-time expenses, and doing so can give a better picture of a company’s ability to make money. When there are such add-backs year after year, however, it begins to look like an attempt to count normal operating costs as profit. The bank determined that the company did not produce sufficiently dependable cash flow to finance the LBO debt.

This is a case where a lender was considering profitability, but the same rules apply to buyers. It’s hard to sell someone on applying a multiple to profits that have never actually been produced.

Unrecognized Liabilities

The other expense category that will impact the quality of earnings opinion is unfunded liabilities. These most frequently are unearthed in employee benefits and service agreements.

The first is accrued vacation or PTO. It is customary to keep records of this liability off the balance sheet, but professional buyers don’t see it that way. The benefit was earned while producing for the seller. They buyer has no reason to pay it out for work that wasn’t done for him.

Pension benefits are another area replete with land mines. Don’t try to show earnings that would otherwise have been shared through an employee profit-sharing plan. A buyer will insist (rightly) than future profits should maintain traditional benefit levels.

Sloppy plan administration is also a liability. If your 401K, for instance, has a backlog of orphan accounts or other potential compliance issues, expect fixing them to be considered as acquisition costs in negotiations.

Do you have annual service agreements with your customers? The appropriate accounting method is to amortize the income over the life of the agreement. Many smaller businesses, who keep records on a cash basis, recognize the income as it is received. That may lead to adjustments in earnings.

Expect that quality of earnings auditors to also look at the service flow through the agreement. If you expend a lot of effort at the end or the contract (say to update software of position for a contract renewal) they may want to accelerate recognition of those expenses.

Not Done Yet

Remember, a quality of earnings examination has one purpose; to find areas where a purchase price merits deductions. The firms hired for these reviews command five and six figure fees for the work. They are expected to produce savings in proportion to their fees.

When you’ve run the quality of earnings gauntlet of your revenue and expenses, you’re not done yet. We have one more challenge; cash flow adjustments.  More on those in the next post.

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Quality of Earnings Part 1: Revenue Traps

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This will be the first of several columns on quality of earnings. While a formal, third-party Quality of Earnings Study is more often seen in mid-market transactions, even small business owners should be aware of the factors that can cause discounts to a selling price long after they thought it was settled.

There are few things as exciting as receiving a Letter of Intent to purchase your company. It may specify a dollar amount, or (as often happens with Private Equity Groups or PEGS) it may set a target range for a price based on multiples of profit. The exact profit, or earnings, that will be multiplied to calculate the price may seem obvious to you, but you shouldn’t be too sure.

Every letter of intent has a clause subjecting the transaction to due diligence. Most sellers are unconcerned about the diligence process. They’ve run a clean set of books. The assets listed on their tax returns are present and accounted for. Revenue and expenses are recorded accurately. A quality of earnings study, however, will look deeper than that.

We’ll look at earnings quality as it is affected by revenue, expense and cash flow factors. First, we will look at revenue-related issues.

Customer concentration

The first, and often the biggest item affecting purchase price is the presence of one or more key customers, without whom the business would have to downsize its operations. Just as stock pickers look at a public company’s beta, or risk factor, large customers are the chief beta influence on the value of privately held businesses.

A single customer who accounts for 10% of your business may not warrant a price discount, but one who controls 20% or more of your revenue almost certainly will trigger renegotiation. You may have a decades-long friendship with that business, but a buyer has little confidence that he or she can maintain the same relationship.

Instead of accepting a discount, you may want to offer your services in transitioning the account. Consider making some of the original price contingent on a an agreed measurement for a successful transfer.

Revenue by line or service

Most businesses do or sell more than one thing. I see this when we try to assign a National American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code to a client for valuation purposes. Many companies sell a product, but also offer service and repair. Some provide skills in several similar, but different industries. Others may have entire departments or divisions that work almost autonomously.

A quality of earnings study (their practitioners don’t call them “audits” although almost everyone else does), will parse revenue and profit by line of business. If 75% of your employees are engaged in something that provides 30% of the profits, you may be looking at another attempt to reduce the purchase price.

Contracts

This area has two components that are subject to due diligence; where you have contracts, and where you don’t.

If you don’t have written agreement with both vendors and customers, expect more strenuous examination of those relationships. How are price changes handled? What if the other party unilaterally changes payment terms? Do you carry inventory that is for a specific account, without any guarantees that it will be purchased? Can your right to distribute a product be terminated without recourse?

I was recently given the opportunity to prepare a family business for a third-party sale offering. It made white-label commodity products, and owed 75% of its revenue to one, publicly traded customer. That customer had given them orders consistently for the last 40 years, but refused to sign any agreements, project future needs, or buy in any way other than one P.O. at a time, as needed. I declined the engagement.

If you do have contracts, expect them to be examined diligently (thus the term) for dangers. While specific purchasing terms are desirable in any agreement, look them over before you start the sale process. See if they should to be updated to reflect current practice. Often conditions and processes have changed by verbal agreement, but that can be tough to explain to someone who is holding a contract in hand that doesn’t match your actual business relationship.

Contracts with public entities or large corporations may also have “change of control” provisions. These call for cancellation or automatic rebid of the business if the supplier changes. In some cases this is a key reason to consider a sale of stock, rather than assets.

First revenues, then expenses

Whether or not your buyer gets a professional quality of earnings study, these are factors that will trip you up in the due diligence process. Next time we will look at how recorded and unrecorded liabilities affect a purchase price.

Exiting a “Time and Place” Business

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“The purpose of middlemen in the marketplace is to provide time and place utility.” I remember the light bulb going on in Economics 101 when my professor said that.  Suddenly, I understood the concept of added value. Someone had to get the product to the customer.

“After all,” the professor continued, “The footwear manufacturer in Massachusetts can’t sell a pair of shoes directly to someone in California. They can’t manufacture and handle thousands of customers. It would be a nightmare, and completely unprofitable.”

The fact that Massachusetts was still known for shoe manufacturing gives you some idea of how long ago this took place. So long ago, in fact, that Zappos wasn’t even a word yet.

The independent shoe retailer gave way to the department stores. In turn their shoe business was decimated by the specialty chain retailers. In fact, most shoe departments in Macy’s and others are actually chain operations within the store. Shoe sales moved into sporting goods stores and discounters. While the industry shifted multiple times, they all still provided time and place utility.

Then came the Internet. Now the manufacturer can sell directly to consumers. In fact, they can eliminate several layers of middlemen, along with the mark-ups.

Lately my area has been swamped with billboards saying “Mattress Dealers are Greedy. TN.com.” TN.com turns out to be Tuft and Needle, a direct selling (via Internet) manufacturer of mattresses. Their pitch is based on eliminating the middlemen. They have diagrams for their supply chain (From us to you.) on the website, along with a list of the markups in the “other guys” logistic chains.

Providing time and place convenience to consumers is challenging when your competitor’s time offering is 24 x 7 x 365 and the place where they purchase is their own home. Even when you need something “right away” online vendors will deliver in as little as two hours.

Last December my wife went out early on a Sunday morning to, “Pick up a few last gifts in time to ship them.” She returned an hour later, empty-handed. “This is ridiculous,” she said. “I’m going to finish my shopping on the Internet, and have all the gifts shipped for me.”

There’s an additional issue when it comes to selling time and place businesses. Many of the new generation of business buyers, the Millennials, value their personal freedom above financial opportunity. They have little interest in coming in early to open up, or staying late to close. Skipping the Thanksgiving family dinner to prep the store for Black Friday is a non-starter.

If you are hoping that I will reveal the secret sauce for perpetuating a time and place business, I’m afraid I’ll disappoint you. There is no magic formula aside from the age-old wisdom of differentiation and service.

Beating Time and Place

My friends at Digital Pro Lab in San Antonio are an excellent example of adjusting to change. What could be more outdated than a drive-up 30 minute film developing shop? What was formerly an epitome of time and place convenience (pictures in a half hour without getting out of your car), has become almost a caricature of “old school.”

Technology has shifted from celluloid film to digital. “Developing” now consists of uploading the files from your phone to a mega-printer who mails 8×10 prints overnight for less than Digital Pro’s cost. The photo chains, Ritz Camera, Fox Photo, and Wolf Photo are all gone, crushed by those “mail order, ” or perhaps more properly “email order” houses.

Digital Pro has survived (and thrives) by their differentiation and service. The large, bright showroom is full of computers where they can show customers the effect of adjusting color balance or editing. They can print your lifetime memories on almost anything, from a key chain to a large metal panel. They can still give you prints made with permanent liquid ink, not the water soluble powder used by most printers.

In addition, they can do all of this online because they’ve invested in the technology necessary to keep up with the “convenience-based” competitors.

As the cost of digital printers fell, professional photographers invested in their own machines. Digital Pro Lab has replaced their business with consumers who want to discuss their special moments, choose how to preserve them, and hold the results in their hands before they pay.

In an industry where the number of time and place based outlets has fallen by over 90% in the last decade, Digital Pro Lab has beaten the big boys with product differentiation and service. When the time comes for planning an exit, they will have options.

Do you know a business owner who will be exiting in the next ten years? Please share Awake at 2 o’clock!

The Unsellable Company

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What does an unsellable company look like? Some business brokers will assert that there is a buyer for any business. That may be true, but historically four out of every five small businesses listed for sale fail to sell.

In this post I am specifically discussing profitable Main Street businesses. That is loosely defined as those valued at under $3,000,000. “Small” doesn’t necessarily refer to size. Some low margin businesses, such as those in distribution of commodity products, could have revenue well into eight figures and still be not command a $3 million valuation.

Others, like those with proprietary software, might have a few million dollars in revenue and be snapped up by a strategic buyer for an eight figure price.

The buyers for most Main Street businesses are individuals who are seeking a livelihood. They usually have never owned a business, and are betting their life savings on the venture. It’s not surprising that they are nervous.

The price ceiling on defining a Main Street company is based on the projected ownership. Simply put, if a business’ principle purpose is to provide an owner (or perhaps a few owners) with a decent standard of living, the ceiling on valuation is based on what the company’s cash flow can support in owner salary, debt service and ROI on the down payment.

To see if your presumed value supports these three requirements, try the Valuation Sanity Check at http://yourexitmap.com/exit-planning-valuation-sanity-check/.

Just because your cash flow justifies your price however, doesn’t mean your company is saleable (or as my Canadian friend John Warrillow writes it in Built to Sell, sellable.) There are still a number of reasons why a solidly profitable business may not find a buyer.

Owner Centricity

Simply put, the whole business revolves around you.  A buyer’s due diligence keeps running into you at the end of every question. How do you do this? (Ask Bob.) Who are your most important customers? (Ask Bob.) What discounts are available from your suppliers? (Ask Bob.) You get the picture.

Even if you have excellent processes, duplicable talents and widespread delegation, an owner who personally holds the professional license needed to legally operate presents a similar issue for a buyer.

Customer Concentration

Some small businesses are very good at what they do, but luck always plays a part. If you’ve grown by depending on one customer for over 50% or your business, or a handful of customers for 80%, expect individual buyers to shy away.

Long term relationships are great, but if they aren’t documented don’t expect them to carry much weight in a valuation. It’s one thing to be proud of doing business on a handshake. It’s another to bet your life savings on one.

Uncertain Revenues or Margins

If you have to explain your tax returns with “We have some good years and some bad years,” you will have a problem attracting buyers. They don’t have your confidence that a bad year will be followed by a good one. If they are committing their retirement savings to the purchase (which is often the case) they are worried about having the financial stamina to withstand a dip in sales.

Similarly, it you are regularly buttressing your revenues with cuts in margin through big discounts or volume deals, it will be perceived by a prospective buyer as regularly having to “save” the business.

You may have steadily increasing revenues and profits, but companies that bid, or have to submit proposals for each job, strike fear into the hearts of inexperienced buyers. They have nightmares about failing to win another job from the day they take over.

Contracts help with this, but they often aren’t enough. I worked with one buyer whose offer was based on the revenue stream from each existing contract until it expired. He wanted to be made whole for the purchase price even if he proved unable to ever land another big customer.

The Unsellable Company

If you recognize your business as having any of these traits, you have three choices when it comes to exit planning.

You can sell the company to employees who understand the constraints of the business and are comfortable with them. You can list the company for sale anyway, and hope that yours is among the 20% of enterprises for whom the right buyer can be found.

Finally, you can implement a plan to eliminate the obstacles to a sale.