Exit Planning Tools for Business Owners

Exit Strategies

Exit Planning in a New Political Environment

by

What does a new political environment mean for business owners who are planning to transition their businesses? Should you accelerate your plans, or slow them down?

As I’ve said many times in this space and elsewhere, the biggest single factor in successfully selling a company is the current condition of the financial markets. Since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has poured new cash into the system at very low interest rates. This “cheap money” has trickled down to fund a wave of leveraged buyouts by financial professionals seeking a better return than that from more traditional investments.

This wave of cash enables some 7,000 private equity groups (PEGs) to seek targets in almost every industry. Those targets, however, are typically among the 20,000 or so privately held companies with over $1,000,000 in pre-tax profit.

That leaves out some 9 million employers on Main Street (those that sell for less than $3,000,000.) Of those, about 5 million are owned by Baby Boomers who are, or should be, thinking about life after business ownership.

Most of the owners I talk to are at a loss to predict the climate of the next few years. They hope that a pro-business administration will reduce bureaucracy and pull back some of the regulatory burden on business owners. On the other hand, they are concerned that trade wars, rescission of treaties or diplomatic snafus will drive the US, or the world, into another economic trough.

A very few claim that they know exactly what President Trump and the Republican Congress will do. In the words of Prussian General Helmut von Moltke, “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” People may think they know what is coming, but it would be foolish to bet the ranch on any single outcome.

What does this mean for exiting business owners? At the risk of sounding too pat, it means exit planning is more important now than ever before.

Why Start Exit Planning Now?

Here are some reasons why an exit plan is valuable in uncertain times:

  • If your planned exit is more than five years from now, the landscape will likely change again before you transition. A plan will give you the tools to track key components of a successful exit, and improve your ability to respond to changes.
  • If your intention is to preserve the legacy of your company by selling it to employees or family members, starting the transfer now can put you in a position to accelerate or delay the final transfer according to current conditions.
  • If the stated intention of the new administration (a return to 4% GDP growth) is successful, a plan to maximize your value to a third-party buyer will leverage higher pricing multiples.
  • If the economy winds up in the tank, a plan is only a plan. It can always be put on hold until conditions improve.

An exit plan is, by definition, a strategic plan with the addition of a completion date. Some owners fear that by stating a deadline, they are committing to it regardless of circumstances. Of course that isn’t true.

Planning your exit and actually exiting are two different activities. It only makes sense that the political environment should be one of the factors that affect your final decision.

Would you like free excerpt from my new book Your Exit Map: Navigating the Boomer Bust?

Just register here. We’ll send you short pieces every few weeks until its publication in the Spring.

Exit Timing and the Global Economy

by

How much will your exit timing be affected by the global economy? Most small businesses serve local markets. Their owners, if they have thought about it, plan to sell to a local individual. If the local market is healthy, why worry about the rest of the world?

A few weeks ago I attended a presentation by  Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors and the youngest member of his cabinet. Dr. Goolsbee was also a college champion debater (he beat Ted Cruz in the national finals) and a member of an improv troupe. That makes him an anomaly in the “dismal science;” a funny economist.

“We are only doomed in the short run.”

Here is a partial list of why he feels the economy will continue on this slow-growth path for some time, and some of the logic (including laugh lines) he used for each.

  • Home prices have returned to their normal annual growth rate (.4%) of the 90 years prior to their run-up. (From the Onion: “Furious Nation Demands New Bubble to Invest In.”)
  • Oil doesn’t have the effect it once did. Fuel efficiency has dropped its impact to less than half the percentage of GDP of 20 years ago. Falling gas prices used to be a boost to the economy. Now that we are a major producer, not so much.
  • The administration is trying to boost consumer spending. The problem is that in the early 2000s Americans were spending more than they made. Now they have returned to their (fairly minimal) savings habits.
  • Europe is circling the event horizon of an economic black hole.
  • Epic job growth (4.5%) is being countered by shrinking productivity in the last few years, resulting in a “stagnant” economy.

For those that expect a stimulus from China’s growth, Goolsbee points out an interesting item.

man-with-head-in-boxThe USA publishes it’s GDP growth statistics one month after the end of a quarter, with adjustments over the next few months. China puts out the number on the last day of each quarter, and never updates it. As Goolsbee says, that causes economists to wonder, “Why do they wait so long?”

Does this affect small business?.

How does this big picture information impact the exit timing of a small business owner?

Exiting is a liquidity event. You are exchanging the equity value of your work for cash. The cost and availability of cash in the financial markets has a lot to do with who is able to buy your business and how much they will pay.

For the last ten years of Quantitative Easing, the markets have been awash with cash. Low deposit rates led many investors to seek higher returns. Private equity groups not only found plenty of investors, but could also leverage their purchases with debt at a relatively low cost.

As the PEGs push towards ever-smaller opportunities, a trickle-down effect has propped up pricing on the lowest (small business) end of the market. Professional investors are flocking to privately held companies. Perhaps they’ve found a new bubble to invest in.

I speak nationally about the coming of the Boomer Bust; the buyer’s market for small business. ( To receive free advance excerpts of my new book on this topic, go here.) According to the demographics, it should be starting already. It appears that the financial markets are hot enough to support prices for those who are exiting now, but demographics are like gravity. You may not like it, but you can’t change it. The flood of exits will come.

Your exit timing is a personal decision, but don’t make the mistake of thinking it’s only a personal decision. The domestic financial markets, which are influenced by the global economy, will have a material effect on your selling price.  Keep one eye on the bigger picture. It could make a material difference in your retirement funding.

Please share Awake at 2 o’clock with another business owner. Thanks for reading!

Business Buyers: The “Buy Now, Pay Later” Generation

by

If you are preparing to sell your business, your buyers will likely be members of the “buy now, pay later” generation. Generation X is the first demographic group to be raised in a culture that put little emphasis on savings.

Diner’s Club was introduced as the first “charge card” in 1960. By the end of that decade competition from member cards (American Express and Carte Blanche) and bank-owned revolving finance cards (MasterCard and Visa) began placing millions of cards in consumers’ hands.

credit-cardIn a competitive credit environment, advertising for the revolving charge cards was directed to the pleasures of paying for something after you already enjoyed the use of it. The struggle of saving for a long time before purchasing was portrayed as foolish and unnecessary. In the 1980s and ’90s Baby Boomers on the quest for material success embraced the concept wholeheartedly.

This is the environment that today’s prime business buyers between the ages of 35 and 50 grew up in. Americans reached the height of “buy now, pay later” just after the turn of the century. In the early 2000s, when Generation Xers were between 28 and 45 (the prime consumption age range) Americans spent about 2% more than they earned annually.

That was a great formula for boosting an economy, but a lousy way to amass capital for investment. That credit-fueled boom died a gruesome death in 2008, and many debt-laden Xers haven’t yet recovered.

These are the buyers for your business. Many have grown up believing that personal financial management consists of parsing a paycheck to allow enough for food after their installment payments. The US savings rate has since recovered to a more normal 5%; much of it fueled by Boomers belatedly preparing for retirement.

If you’ve spent the last 30 years or more building a business worth a million dollars, you need to find one of these folks who has put aside at least $300,000 or so to buy it outright (a down payment to qualify for financing plus initial working capital.) There are such buyers, including escapees from corporate life with substantial retirement plans and those who will be inheriting their parents’ savings.

Most buyers, however, don’t have that kind of money. If you want to realize full value for your business, you may want to think about how to accommodate a “buy now, pay later” approach. A buyer who writes a check is more appealing, but good business logic seldom results in complete dependence on a long-shot strategy.

There are four ways to sell a successful business to folks who have no money. The more time you have to implement a plan, the better its chances of success. In order of my preference they are:

  • Best – Sell to Employees. A five to ten year period is usually sufficient to get a “down payment” (25-35%) into employees’ hands via stock incentives. The best scenario is earning the awards by growing the value of the business. In a strong company, the owner can leave with the full proceeds in his or her pocket, and remain in control until retirement.
  • Better – Hire Your Buyer. This is similar to a sale to employees, but you use the equity plan to recruit a more highly qualified individual than you could otherwise attract. It is better in the sense that the buyer may be stronger, but the time up front to make sure he/she is a good fit represents a risk.
  • Good – Finance the Down Payment. For many lenders, including the SBA, stock sold via a subordinated note can qualify as a down payment. It means you walk away with 65-75% of your money, and leave the rest in the business until the first-position lender is comfortable with the stability of their risk.
  • Worst – Finance the Purchase. This is often the scenario for an owner who waits too long to consider the options. Whether the buyer is an employee or a third-party, you sell the company for a promissory note and hope for the best.

You have options, but they disappear one by one as you get closer to your exit. That’s why we encourage planning. Having a plan in place doesn’t require immediate implementation, but it does help when evaluating opportunities.

For more on Boomers and Buyers, you can download my free eBook Beating the Boomer Bust.

Following my own advice, I am leaving on my biannual sabbatical. Awake at 2 o’clock will resume on November 6th. In the meantime, please share it with another business owner. Thank you.

The Immortal Business Goes on Forever

by

Do you run an immortal business? I hope so. If you answered “no,” or even hesitated to be sure of your response, then you don’t think of your business as immortal.

So when do you plan to shut it down?

Most owners react viscerally to that question. They’ve invested too much time and too much sweat to watch their companies become a memory. They care too much about employees and customers to entertain the idea of  abandoning them.

ForeverFor many, the business is a part of them. Shutting it down would be like having a piece of you die.

Ironically, we play mental gymnastics in our heads every day. We think we have an immortal business. We know we aren’t immortal (on this plane of existence, at least.) Yet, I talk to owners every day who want to pretend that either they will run the business forever, or that it will find some magic way to continue without them.

Anyone who works in exit planning knows the standard answers to the question “What is your exit plan?”

  • “I intend to look for a buyer in about 5 years.”
  • “I still enjoy my business. Talk to me after I get tired of it.”
  • “I’ll sell anything for the right price if someone offers it.”

Each of those answers is a version of “I haven’t thought much about it, and I really don’t want to.” I wouldn’t be much of a consultant (or at least I’d be an impoverished one), if I didn’t have some counter arguments ready.

  • “I intend to look for a buyer in about 5 years.” That’s fine, but five years is about the minimum time you should allow for any serious tax planning. If you are going to take a subchapter S election, create a new entity, or change your  depreciation methods, it will take some time to have the desired effect. Of course, the Internal Revenue Service already has a plan for how they would handle the proceeds, so you could just go with theirs.
  • “I still enjoy my business. Talk to me after I get tired of it.” That is clearly too late. Whether you are selling to employees or family, or marketing the company to third parties,  the business needs to be running well to survive a transition to new ownership. Once you start losing interest, it gets much tougher.
  • “I’ll sell anything for the right price if someone offers it.” Sure but what is the “right” price? Is it based on industry metrics? Is it some multiple that a guy from a vendor told you a competitor sold for? Is it a number you need for retirement that has little to do with market value? If you received an offer tomorrow, how would you know if it was the best offer you might ever see?

The most important thing to remember is this: Planning is only planning. Implementation is a different activity in the management cycle. Just because you have a plan doesn’t mean you will use it today or tomorrow, but it will still be there when you choose to put it into action.

If you own an immortal business, you have an obligation to the folks who depend on it. Part of that is to know how they will be able to continue depending on it when you aren’t there.

If you know a business owner who would benefit from “Awake at 2 o’clock,” please share!

still

Selling to Employees: Is Your Exit Strategy Right in Front of You?

by

When I interview a prospective client for exit planning assistance, we usually explore selling to employees. The first reaction is always “That won’t work. They don’t have any money.”

If you have a company with reasonable cash flow, a talented management team and sufficient time, selling to employees is not only a realistic option; it may be the best way to get value from your business. I’ll define those parameters for you in a minute.

If you haven’t read my eBook Beating the Boomer Bust, follow the link for the free download. My research shows that the hard numbers will inevitably translate into a hard market. There are 3,000,000 Baby Boomers (over 50) who own businesses with employees. Over the next 20 years, that’s an average of 150,000 owner retirements per year. Intermediaries (brokers, private equity and M&A) account for about 9,000 transactions a year.

That leaves a lot of folks looking for a way to cash out. Selling to employees is a process that lets you keep control until retirement. By structuring the sale correctly, you can leave with the proceeds in the bank, not in a promissory note.

How does that work? It requires a bit of mental gymnastics. First, any owner has to accept that the only source of funding for any transaction is the cash flow of his or her company. If a buyer pays cash, he expects that cash flow to pay him back. If a bank finances the acquisition, they expect the cash flow to service the debt. If you finance it, you are the essentially the bank.

Selling to employees is the same. You use the current cash flow to help employees buy stock. In return, they qualify by working to increase the value of the business until your final return is equal to (or more than) what it was when you started.

Think of it as taking a note for 30% of the purchase price while you are still in control, so that you can get a 70% cash down payment when you leave.

Now, let’s discuss the parameters.

Cash Flow: Your company has to be earning more than just your paycheck. My rule of thumb is that around $500,000 a year after owner’s compensation gives enough to work with. More than that doesn’t change much, since then we are usually looking at a higher purchase price. Less than that is doable in a longer time frame, or if the owner is willing to subordinate some debt to the bank.

Management Team: You need at least one decision maker who does more than just go through the operational motions. Any third-party lender wants to be comfortable with company leadership when you’re gone. A large portion of our planning surrounds transfer and documentation of management capability sufficient to satisfy a lender.

Time Frame: Many business owners tell me “I’ll think about exiting in five years.” That’s fine, if your plan is to retire in fifteen years. Generally speaking, the longer you have, the more lucrative an internal sale can be. I’ve done three year plans, but five is much more comfortable, eight years is even better, and we regularly work on transitions of ten years and longer.

all for one one for allSelling to employees requires legal agreements, specialized compensation plans and a willingness to run the company transparently. The return is a team that is committed to the long term, highly motivated, and all on the same page when it comes to growing the business.

Why should you consider selling to employees?  Because your company lives on with the culture you created. Because you can choose the value, not negotiate it. Because your employees aren’t comparing your company with other investments. Because you control the timing of your exit.

Because it is probably the biggest financial transaction of your life.

Do you know an owner who would benefit from reading Awake at 2 o’clock? Please share!